碳中和目标下长三角地区能源结构调整的经济影响及其差异性  

THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION

作　　者：王理想 王建民[1] WANG Lixiang;WANG Jianmin(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《资源与产业》2024年第1期25-34,共10页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY116)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出,积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。能源结构调整是实现碳中和目标的重要途径,从碳排放产生机制与经济增长的共生关系出发,将经济高质量发展纳入碳中和目标考虑范畴。基于长三角地区3省1市2017年投入产出表,构建区域宏、微观SAM表及能源结构调整模拟分析CGE(computable general equilibrium)模型,建立长三角地区宏观经济闭合系统,研究能源结构调整对长三角地区的经济影响及其差异性。研究发现:1)长三角各区域随着能源结构转型不断推进,其经济影响存在明显差异性,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代5%、10%、15%、20%时,江苏省能源结构调整的多数经济指标的经济影响以替代5%时的损失最多,替代10%时的损失小于替代5%、15%时的损失;2)长三角各区域经济发展对传统化石能源的依赖程度存在较大差异,安徽省、上海市经济发展受到能源结构调整的影响较低,江苏省次之,浙江省受到能源结构调整的影响最大;3)随着能源结构调整不断推进,长三角部分区域的经济影响存在阶段性浮动,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代10%时,多数经济指标,如农业、制造业、服务业部门的产出以及GDP、政府收入等的经济影响均小于清洁能源替代5%、15%时产生的影响。能源结构调整对长三角地区乃至全国各地实现碳中和目标至关重要,亟须关注。The 20 th Report presented an objective of carbon peaking and neutralization.Energy structural adjustment is a vital means to reach carbon neutralization.This paper,based on their symbiosis of carbon emission and economic growth,incorporates economic quality development into carbon neutralization objective.In terms of their 2017 inputs/outputs of three province and one city in Yangtze River delta,this paper establishes a regional macro-and microscopic SAM table and CGE model,and sets up a macroscopic economic closed system,which are used to study the impacts and variance of energy structural adjustment on Yangtze River delta s economy.As energy structural transformation advances,its economic impacts vary.In Jiangsu province,when clean energy has been replaced at 5%,10%,15%and 20%,the economic impacts of multiple indicators gain a biggest loss at 5%,loss at 10%less than at 5%and 15%.Economic dependance on fossil fuels varies with location,less in Anhui and Shanghai,then Jiangsu,and Zhejiang receives the biggest impacts.Economic impacts waves as energy structural adjustment moves forward.When Jiangsu s clean energy is replaced at 10%,economic impacts of most indicators from agricultural,manufacturing,servicing,GDP and governmental income are less than when clean energy is replaced at 5%and at 15%.Energy structural adjustment is a critical approach to carbon neutralization in Yangtze River delta and even nationwide.

关 键 词：经济高质量发展 碳中和 能源结构调整 经济影响 CGE模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F062.1