粮食主产区的新型城镇化与粮食安全——基于土地规模化经营中介效应检验  

NEW URBANIZATION AND GRAIN SECURITY IN MAJOR GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS BASED ON MEADIATING EFFECTS OF LAND SCALING OPERATION

作　　者：华坚[1] 杨梦依 曹慧敏 HUA Jian;YANG Mengyi;CAO Huimin(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《资源与产业》2024年第1期50-60,共11页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(21CGL064)。

摘　　要：在新时代发展背景下,新型城镇化成为粮食主产区城乡二元结构变革和农业生产方式转型的关键。论文基于2007—2021年我国13个粮食主产区的省级面板数据,从产业链视角利用熵值法测度粮食安全水平,基于新型城镇化内涵构建包含人口、经济、社会、空间的多维度指标体系并测度新型城镇化水平,探究新型城镇化对粮食安全的影响,并以土地规模化经营为中介变量,分析新型城镇化及其各维度影响粮食安全的作用机制。结果表明:1)粮食主产区的新型城镇化对粮食安全有显著的促进作用,并且土地规模化经营在新型城镇化对粮食安全的作用过程中存在中介效应;2)分维度异质性分析表明,人口城镇化与空间城镇化对粮食安全产生显著的正向影响,且土地规模化经营在其中发挥部分或完全的中介效应。为此,提出积极推进新型城镇化、鼓励土地规模化经营并从人口、经济、社会、空间城镇化多个维度因地制宜调整粮食发展战略是粮食主产区发展的长远之策。New urbanization has become the key means to reform urban-rural dual structural and to transform agricultural producing ways in major grain-producing areas under the new era developing background.This paper,based on 2007 to 2021 provincial panel data of China s 13 major grain-producing areas,uses entropy to estimate China s grain security level from perspective of industrial chain,applies new urbanization contents to establish a multiple-dimensional index system that is composed of population,economy,society and space,which is employed to estimate the new urbanization level and to study its impacts on grain security,and applies land scaling operation as mediating variable to study the mechanism of new urbanization and its dimensions on grain security.New urbanization largely boosts grain security in major grain-producing areas,and land scaling operation plays a mediating effect amid new urbanization works on grain security.Dimensional heterogeneity suggests that population urbanization and spatial urbanization play an outstandingly positive role on grain security,during which land scaling operation plays a partial or total mediating effect.This paper presents suggestions on boosting new urbanization,and encouraging land scaling operation,and making appropriate strategy from population,economy,society and spatial urbanization as a long-term approach for the major grain-producing areas.

关 键 词：粮食安全 新型城镇化 土地规模化经营 粮食主产区 中介效应 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] F326.11