中国“一带一路”倡议投资对降低共建国家气候风险的影响  

Impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative investments on climate risk mitigation inpartner countries

作　　者：初冬梅[1] 吴微 CHU Dongmei;WU Wei(China Frontier Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen Fujian 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所,北京100101 [2]厦门大学管理学院中国能源政策研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第1期11-22,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中俄北极可持续发展合作研究”(批准号:19BGJ059)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议是实践人类命运共同体理念的重要平台。然而,许多“一带一路”倡议共建国家处于气候变化敏感区,部分西方国家对“一带一路”倡议建设存在一些质疑与污蔑,认为“一带一路”倡议的基建项目可能增加了共建国家的气候变化脆弱性。该研究从应对气候变化的视角探究中国对外直接投资对“一带一路”倡议共建国家气候变化风险的影响,进而考察其内在机理。基于2004—2020年65个共建国家的面板数据,以各国气候变化脆弱性风险为被解释变量,评估中国对外直接投资对东道国应对气候变化风险能力的影响。研究发现:①中国对“一带一路”倡议地区的直接投资显著减轻了共建国家的气候变化脆弱性风险;在全球气候变化危机加剧的背景下,提高了共建国家气候风险应对能力。②对于“一带一路”倡议国家中的中低收入国家、中国邻国以及与中国建立自由贸易协定的国家而言,中国“一带一路”倡议投资降低当地气候变化脆弱性风险的作用更为明显。③中国“一带一路”倡议投资的作用可以通过收入增长效应、政治稳定效应部分解释,符合“一带一路”倡议共享发展成果、推进全球治理的重要理念。④中国“一带一路”倡议投资在降低共建国家气候变化脆弱性的同时,并没有加剧当地的碳排放水平,表明中国“一带一路”倡议投资并没有引发部分西方国家所污蔑的“碳排放转移”问题,绿色始终是“一带一路”倡议的底色。该研究为理解中国“一带一路”倡议建设的时代作用提供了实证支持,为进一步推动共建“一带一路”倡议提供了政策建议。The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)is a significant focal point in the construction of a human community with a shared fu⁃ture.However,many BRI partner countries are located in climate-sensitive areas.There are doubts and criticisms about the BRI,sug⁃gesting that its infrastructure projects might increase the vulnerability to climate change in the BRI partner countries.To address this controversy,this study investigated the role of China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in enhancing the ability of these coun⁃tries to cope with climate change risks and examined the underlying mechanisms of this impact.Using panel data from 65 BRI partner countries spanning 2004–2020,the study evaluated the impact of China's OFDI on the partner countries'ability to cope with climate change risks,with the climate change vulnerability risk of each country as the explanatory variable.The findings indicated that:①Chi⁃na's OFDI in the Belt and Road region significantly mitigated the climate change vulnerability risks of the partner countries and im⁃proved their climate risk coping capacity in the context of the intensifying global climate change crisis.②The effect of China's BRI in⁃vestment on reducing local climate change vulnerability risks was more significant in low-and middle-income countries,China's neighboring countries,and countries with which China had established free trade agreements.③The income growth effect and political stability effect partially explained the impact of China's BRI investments,aligning with the important concepts of sharing development results and promoting global governance under the BRI.④China's BRI investments did not exacerbate local carbon emissions while re⁃ducing the vulnerability to climate change in the participating countries,indicating that China's BRI investments did not trigger the‘carbon emission transfer’problem blamed by Western countries,and green has always been the defining feature of the BRI.This study provides empirical support for understanding the ro

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 对外投资(OFDI) 气候变化脆弱性 气候治理 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]