煤电CCUS产业化发展路径与综合性政策支撑体系  

Development path and comprehensive supporting policy system of coal power's CCUS industrialization

作　　者：陈语 姜大霖 刘宇[3,4] 魏宁[5] 李奥[6] 吴微[7] CHEN Yu;JIANG Dalin;LIU Yu;WEI Ning;LI Ao;WU Wei(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei 430073,China;Technology and Economics Research Institute,CHN Energy,Beijing 102200,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan Hubei 430071,China;School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei 430073,China;China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,Xiamen University,Xiamen Fujian 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]国家能源集团技术经济研究院,北京102200 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [4]北京大学碳中和研究院,北京100871 [5]中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所,湖北武汉430071 [6]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [7]厦门大学管理学院中国能源政策研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第1期59-70,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“基础设施的隐含碳效率评价与布局优化研究——基于资本形成和产出转化的两阶段视角”(批准号:23YJC790009);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“隐含碳排放视角下的基础设施全要素碳效率研究”(批准号:2022M723541);国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的典型区域与重点行业CCS技术选择与路径优化”(批准号:72243011);国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目“能源环境管理与政策分析”(批准号:72125010);国家自然科学基金面上项目“能源效率内生对碳市场价格波动的影响机理和路径研究——基于动态技术进步CGE模型”(批准号:71974186)。

摘　　要：碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)技术是实现煤电产业低碳转型升级的重要技术路径,也是保障未来电力系统安全稳定运行的关键手段。然而,当前煤电与CCUS技术耦合的发展路径尚不清晰,相应政策机制也存在优化空间。作者量化测算了煤电CCUS应用对于中国能源低碳转型战略的贡献,从时空维度刻画煤电CCUS产业化发展路径,进一步构建适应国情的综合性政策支撑体系框架。研究结果表明,煤电耦合CCUS发展具备技术经济可行性,不仅可以实现能源电力系统深度脱碳,带来显著的煤电行业产出及就业红利,还能有效控制全社会平均碳价格水平。在时间维度上,未来煤电CCUS产业化发展路径应划分为技术研发与示范(2021—2030年)、规模化应用(2030—2040年)、商业化发展(2040—2060年)三个阶段。在空间维度上,技术经济可行且适合集群发展的区域为鄂尔多斯盆地、准噶尔盆地、渤海湾盆地等。通过构建包含“宏观支持、财税金融、市场机制、技术研发示范、管理体系”等在内的综合性政策支撑体系框架,有助于实现煤电CCUS的规模化发展。在煤电CCUS的技术研发与示范阶段,应实行封存补贴、发电小时数补偿、上网电价补贴等更为确定性的激励政策。当项目成本下降到一定程度后,应逐步过渡为碳交易、绿电交易机制等市场化政策工具,并推广绿色金融等机制。基于相关结论,该研究提出了针对性政策建议,以期为推动中国煤电行业实现绿色低碳转型提供参考。Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)technology is a vital technical path to realize the low-carbon transformation of the coal power industry as well as a key means to ensure the safe and stable operation of the future power system.However,the cur⁃rent development path of coupling coal power and CCUS technology is not clear,and there is room for the optimization of the corre⁃sponding policy mechanism.This paper quantitatively estimates the contribution of CCUS application in the coal power industry to Chi⁃na's low-carbon energy transition strategy,describes the future development path of coal power's CCUS industrialization from the spa⁃tio-temporal dimension,and further constructs a comprehensive supporting policy system framework.The results show that the develop⁃ment of coupling coal power and CCUS technology is technically and economically feasible,which can not only achieve deep decarbon⁃ization of the power system and bring significant output and employment dividends in the coal power industry,but also effectively con⁃trol the average carbon price level of society.In terms of the temporal dimension,the development path of coal power's CCUS industrial⁃ization in the future should be divided into three stages:technology research,development,and demonstration(2021—2030),largescale application(2030—2040),and commercial development(2040—2060).In terms of the spatial dimension,the technically and eco⁃nomically feasible regions for cluster development are the Ordos Basin,the Junggar Basin,the Bohai Bay Basin,etc.Constructing a comprehensive policy support system framework incorporating‘macro support,fiscal and tax finance,market mechanism,technology re⁃search,development,and demonstration,as well as management system’is conducive to realizing a large-scale CCUS application in the coal power industry.In the stage of technology research,development,and demonstration of coal power's CCUS application,more defin⁃itive incentive policies such as storage subsidies,compensation for po

关 键 词：燃煤发电 CCUS 发展路径 政策体系 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]