保革政治和解与国家发展道路转型--泰国2023年回顾与2024年展望  

A Retrospect of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 20242024:Reconciliation Between Conservatives And Reformists and Transformation of Thai National Development Path

作　　者：袁春生[1] Yuan Chunsheng(Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences/China Academy for South and Southeast Asian Studies,Kunming,650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省社会科学院、中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院泰国研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2024年第1期9-30,共22页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院2022—2025年度重点学科建设项目“泰国研究”。

摘　　要：政治方面,2023年泰国新一轮大选历经波折组成跨阵营的联合政府,最终为泰党侯选人赛塔当选第30任总理,成功化解了组阁危机,“保革和解”推动了泰国民主进程;但2023年大选促进泰国极左翼党派远进党的强势崛起,泰国政治格局由保革长期对立转变为“三足鼎立”,泰国渐趋稳定的政局仍存在政治冲突的风险。经济方面,泰国赛塔政府极力推行“经济疗法”,重启泰国旅游、延缓农民还贷期限、降低居民生活成本、吸引外商直接投资和减免税收等系列措施以提振经济,但受总理选举形成的“政治真空”、出口贸易收缩、制造业指数下降和旅游服务业复苏减缓等因素的叠加影响,全年经济增长低于预期。外交方面,弘扬“大国平衡”外交传统,恢复与美国的同盟关系并寻求与美国跨国企业的投资合作;支持高质量共建“一带一路”,持续构建与中国的命运共同体关系;实行“积极主动的经济外交”,加强与中国、美国、日本等国家和新兴经济体在投资、经贸和可持续发展方面的友好合作;依托东盟开展区域合作及在国际事务中发挥建设性作用。展望2024年,泰国将开启“增量改革”以促进经济增长和国家发展道路转型,进一步拓展绿色经济、数字经济和新能源等产业的发展空间,政治和外交服务于经济增长目标,泰国复苏增长可期。Politically,Thailand formed a cross-camp coalition government in the 2023 general election and Puea Thai Party member Srettha Thavisin was elected as the 30th Prime Minister,resolving the cabinet formation crisis and promoting Thailand's democratic progress through the reconciliation between conservatives and reformists.However,the strong rise and expansion of opposition factions from the general electionhave turned Thailand's political pattern from a long-term opposition between conservatives and reformists to a"three-legged structure",bringing hidden worries to the political stability of Thailand;economically,the Thai government promoted"economic therapy".A series of measures,including"restarting tourism in Thailand",deferring farmers'loan repayments for a period of three years,reducing living costs,attracting foreign direct investments and tax breaks,were taken to stimulate economic growth.However,Thailand's economy grew less than expected owing to the"political vacuum"formed by the election,the contraction of export trade,the decline of the manufacturing index,the slowdown of the recovery of the service industry and other factors;diplomatically,Thailand upheld its tradition of"great power balance"diplomacy,restoring the alliance with the United States and seeking economic cooperation with American multinational companies.It also continued to develop a community of shared future with China,implemented proactive economic diplomacy to strengthen friendly cooperation with China,the United States,Japan and other countries and emerging economies in investment,trade,and sustainable development,relied on ASEAN to carry out regional cooperation,and played a constructive role in international affairs.2024 is the opening year for Thailand to embark on"incremental reforms"to boost economic growth and transform its development path,and further expand the development space of the green economy,digital economy,and new energy industries and so on.As Thai politics and diplomacy will serve the goal of economic growth,Thailand'

关 键 词：泰国 泰国大选 “保革和解” “经济疗法” 新能源汽车 中泰关系 

分 类 号：F133.6[经济管理—世界经济] D733.6[政治法律—政治学]