中国人口质量抵补人口数量的内在机理与实现路径  

China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path

作　　者：胡耀岭[1] 徐洋洋 Hu Yaoling;Xu Yangyang(School of Economics,Population and Health Development Research Center;School of Economics,Hebei University)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院、人口与健康发展研究中心 [2]河北大学经济学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2024年第1期22-39,共18页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“增强综合实力的中国人口长期发展战略研究”(21ZDA108)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于2000~2020年各种统计年鉴、历次全国人口普查以及《世界人口展望2022》中相关数据,构建劳动力素质综合评价模型,测算中国未来名义劳动供给量与有效劳动供给当量的变动情况,分析人口质量抵补人口数量的可行性及实现路径。研究结果显示,中国名义劳动供给量将从2020年的7.447亿人降至2050年的5.659亿人,有效劳动供给当量虽然高于名义劳动供给量,但受限于劳动年龄人口基数的持续缩小,将在2028年达到峰值7.529亿人后开始下降,并于2050年降至6.431亿人;通过教育改革与健康干预提升相对劳动质量,有效劳动供给当量达到峰值的年份可推迟至2032年,并在2050年之前一直保持在7.14亿人以上,在短期内实现人口质量抵补人口数量;长期来看,充分发挥人口质量的抵补效应离不开一定规模的人口基数,需要在全面提升人口素质的同时,进一步加强生育支持政策体系建设。Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility.

关 键 词：人口质量 人口数量 名义劳动供给量 有效劳动供给当量 抵补效应 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]