中国人口惯性的历史演进与城乡差异  

The Dynamics of China's Population Momentum and Its Urban-Rural Differences

作　　者：茅倬彦[1] 莫华归 Mao Zhuoyan;Mo Huagui

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学特大城市经济社会发展研究院 [2]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第1期83-97,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家留学基金、首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新项目“中国人口负增长变局中的劳动力供给——基于七普数据的预测与分析”(编号:2023KJCX034);国家社科基金重大项目“流动人口二代成年后面临的问题研究”(编号:22&ZD196)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2022年,中国进入人口负增长时代。从人口惯性视角审视中国人口负增长,可以更好地认识和适应中国人口发展新常态。文章基于中国历次人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据,分析了近70年全国及城乡人口惯性变化及其对人口长期变动的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国人口自20世纪90年代起开始累积内在负增长势能,持续的低生育率导致2020年出现显著的人口负增长惯性;(2)在超低生育率驱动下,中国人口负增长将带来人口总量缩减和老龄化加速发展,且超低生育率持续时间越久,负增长惯性作用越强;(3)随着城乡生育率趋同,2020年城乡均呈现出人口负增长惯性,但由于农村年轻人不断流入城市,农村的人口负增长惯性更强。人口惯性反映实际人口年龄结构与均衡状态(静止人口年龄结构)的偏离程度,考察人口惯性变动有助于科学研判人口长期变动状况,正确认识人口负增长的成因与趋势,积极应对中国人口负增长。China has observed negative population growth since 2022.It is useful to view the population change through the perspective of population momentum.This study uses data from China's population censuses and 1%national population sample survey to examine the population momentum changes during the past 70 years,and explore its long-term impacts on population development.We find that:(1)As early as the 1990s,China's population began to accumulate intrinsic negative population growth force,and the continuing low fertility rate has led to a significant negative population growth momentum by 2020.(2)The negative population growth,driven by lowest-low fertility rate,may accelerate population decline and aging.The longer the lowest-low fertility rate lasts,the stronger the negative growth momentum will be.(3)Both urban and rural areas show negative population momentum in 2020,resulting from their converging low fertility.Yet,the proportion of young population in urban area overtakes that in rural area,resulting in a stronger negative population momentum in rural areas.The population momentum reflects the deviation of the actual population from the hypothetical stationary one,and it helps to judge the intrinsic population trend and to cope with the negative population growth properly.

关 键 词：人口惯性 人口负增长 人口普查 城乡差异 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]