2011~2020年中国城市人口增长来源构成分析  

Analysis on the Composition of Urban Population Growth in China between 2011 and 2020

作　　者：黄祖宇 王桂新[2] Huang Zuyu;Wang Guixin

机构地区：[1]湖南大学公共管理学院 [2]复旦大学人口研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第1期98-112,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“我国以人为核心的新型城镇化机制及推进战略研究”(编号:21ZDA067)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章利用中国2010年以来全国人口普查、全国1%人口抽样调查及其他相关统计数据,测算并考察2011~2020年城市人口增长来源构成及其对城市化发展的贡献。研究结果表明,考察期内中国城市人口规模仍在持续增大,但增长速度有所放缓;2011~2020年的新增城市人口中,56%来自人口迁移,26%来自行政区划变动,自然增长仅占18%,人口迁移仍是推动中国城市化发展的主导因素;城市人口增长来源构成未发生根本性变化,但三大增长来源对城市化发展贡献的差异趋于减小,迁移增长对城市化发展的主导作用有所弱化,自然增长与区划变动的影响相对增大。探讨城市人口增长来源构成及其对城市化发展的贡献,对把握中国新时期城市化发展动力机制的变化,推进城市化高质量发展具有重要意义。Using data from China's national population census,the 1%National Population Sample Survey and other relevant statistical sources since 2010,the article examines the composition of urban population growth in China from 2011 to 2020.The results show that China's urban population continues to increase,yet at a declining rate.During the study period,56%of the urban population growth comes from rural-to-urban migration,26%from changes of administrative divisions,and only 18%from natural growth of urban population.Therefore,population migration still dominates China's urbanization.The composition of urban population growth has not changed fundamentally,but the contributions of the three sources of urbanization tend to converge.The dominant role of migration begins to weaken,while the influence of natural population growth and that of growth from administrative division changes increase subsequently.It is of great significance to grasp the dynamics of urbanization as to promote the high-quality development in China in the new era.

关 键 词：人口城市化 自然增长 迁移增长 区划变动增长 城市人口 增长构成 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]