非金融企业部门债务与资源配置优化——基于动态一般均衡模型的量化分析  

Nonfinancial Corporate Debt and Resource Allocation Optimization——A Quantitative Analysis Based on the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：戚逸康 Qi Yikang(China Securities Regulatory Commission,Beijing 100033,China)

机构地区：[1]中国证券监督管理委员会市场监管一司,北京100033

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第1期65-74,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：在债务(高杠杆)问题尚未完全解决的情况下,我国经济还面临着结构失衡和增速放缓的局面。债务和经济增长的双重压力倒逼对两者内在联系的研究需要进一步深入。动态一般均衡模型分析显示,债务通过在生产效率不同的经济参与者之间优化资源配置,促进资本积累和产出增加,社会福利进而提高。在强制性偿还的条件下,生产均衡条件决定了债务的上限,但在非强制性偿还的条件下,“不太紧”债务上限和生产均衡条件共同决定债务上限。数值模拟显示,债务资本比和资本存量之间呈现出稳健的正U型关系。目前我国33.9%的非金融企业部门债务资本比水平高于数值模拟下的最优水平,所以政策导向上应坚持去杠杆,但资源错配或资源配置无效率问题需重视。While the debt problem has not been completely resolved,China’s economy is still facing structural imbalance and slowing growth.The pressure from high debt and low growth rate forces the need for further indepth research on the intrinsic relationship between these two matters.The analysis of the dynamic general equilibrium model shows that debt optimizes the allocation of financial resources among participants with differ⁃ent production efficiencies and promotes capital accumulation/output.Social welfare is thus improved.Under the condition of compulsory repayment,the production equilibrium condition determines the upper limit of debt,while non-mandatory repayment,the not-too-tight debt ceiling and the production equilibrium condition jointly do.Numerical simulation shows that there is a robust positive U-shaped relationship between debt-to-capital ratio and capital stock.At present,China's nonfinancial corporate debt-to-capital ratio is 33.9%,which is higher than the optimal level in history,so policymakers should adhere to deleveraging.But the problem of resource misallocation needs more attention.

关 键 词：非金融企业部门债务 搜索理论 信贷约束 杠杆率 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]