物理-社会耦合系统下震后多方协同救援的微分博弈模型  

Differential Game Model of Multi-party Cooperative Rescue after Earthquake in Physical-social Coupling System

作　　者：杨曼 刘德海 Yang Man;Liu Dehai(Business School,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,China;School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255000 [2]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第1期115-124,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72274030,71874024)。

摘　　要：地震灾害救援系统是一个涉及道路通行能力和多方参与的物理-社会复杂耦合系统。其中,物理系统中道路受损是影响救灾物资运输的重要因素之一,社会系统中政府和社会力量的协同治理成效决定了救灾效果。为提高物资运输效率和灾区救灾量,本文考虑道路通行能力构建政府和社会组织协同运输非合作救援模式、协同合作救援模式以及政府补贴模式的微分博弈模型,计算了三种模式下多方努力水平、补贴比例、救灾量和系统均衡收益。研究发现,在一定条件下,政府补贴作为一种激励机制,可提高社会组织救灾努力水平、实现双方救灾效益的帕累托改进。社会系统中三种救灾模式具有不同的耦合效果。其中,协同合作救援最优策略及整体最优收益均严格优于非合作和政府补贴两种模式。Under the dynamic change of road conditions and multi-party disaster coupling system,how to choose the disaster relief path according to the specific situation of road damage has become an urgent problem to be solved at present.Earthquake disasters and other emergencies show the characteristics of a complex physical-social coupling system.In addition,some sections of the road system appear functional failure under the action of strong earthquakes,which hinders the transport of relief supplies and evacuation of casualties.In the disaster coupling system,the government and social organizations need to participate in the rescue.First of all,in the early stage after the earthquake,it was difficult for the external rescue forces of the government to quickly enter the scene because of traffic interruption and poor information,while social forces could guide the people to carry out self-rescue and mutual rescue,but the continuous social forces occupied the rescue road,resulting in traffic congestion,“saving people will be saved by others”and other secondary disasters.Secondly,socialized disaster prevention and mitigation is an important direction of current and future disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism reform,the government and social organizations cooperate,not only effectively make up for the“government failure”defect,but also promote the stable development of society;Finally,to guarantee the amount of disaster relief required by the disaster area,the government has increased financial sup⁃port for social organizations to relieve the pressure of disaster relief.According to the different input strategies of government and social organizations in disaster relief,three cooperation modes are summarized,namely noncooperative rescue mode,cooperative rescue mode,and government subsidy mode.Then the differential game model of cooperative transportation between government and social organization is constructed.First,three dif⁃ferential game models of cooperative transportation between government and soci

关 键 词：震后救援 微分博弈 物理-社会耦合系统 道路通行能力 协同运输 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]