基于FUZZY-BN-FTA的厂区架空燃气管道泄漏可能性研究  

Research on possibility of leakage of overhead gas pipeline in plant area based on FUZZY-BN-FTA model

作　　者：杨斯涵 许开立[1] YANG Sihan;XU Kaili(School of Resources and Civil Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第2期82-89,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52074066)。

摘　　要：为研究厂区架空燃气管道泄漏的故的可能性,提出模糊数学方法、贝叶斯网络模型以及故障树模型相结合的集成模型。通过GeNIe软件建立架空燃气管道泄漏事故的模糊贝叶斯网络模型;引入Leaky Noisy-or Gate扩展模型对模糊贝叶斯网络中节点的条件概率表进行修正,结合基本事件先验概率预测架空燃气管道泄漏的概率值,并引入3个基本事件重要度确定基本事件的重要性排序,同时进行敏感性分析确定主要影响因素,提出控制措施。研究结果表明:厂区车辆撞击、管道疲劳损耗、管材质量不佳、安装设计不合理、焊接缺陷为导致架空燃气管道泄漏的主要因素。研究结果可为工业企业安全管理人员有针对性地制定控制措施,减少事故发生率提供参考。In order to study the possibility of overhead gas pipeline leakage in the plant area,an ensemble model combining the fuzzy mathematical method,Bayesian network model and fault tree model was proposed.A fuzzy Bayesian network model of overhead gas pipeline leakage accident was established by GeNIe software.The Leaky Noisy-or Gate extension model was introduced to modify the conditional probability table of nodes in fuzzy Bayesian network,and the probability value of overhead gas pipeline leakage was predicted by combining the prior probability of basic events.The importance of three basic events was introduced to determine the importance ranking of basic events,and the sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the main influencing factors and control measures.The results show that the main factors leading to the leakage of overhead gas pipelines are the vehicle impact in plant area,pipeline fatigue loss,poor pipe quality,unreasonable installation design,and welding defects.The research results can provide a reference for the safety management personnel of industrial enterprises to formulate targeted control measures and reduce the accident occurrence.

关 键 词：架空燃气管道泄漏 可能性分析 贝叶斯网络 梯形模糊数 Leaky Noisy-or Gate扩展模型 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X937