基于博弈论和云模型的滑坡危险性评价  

Landslide hazard evaluation based on game theory and cloud model

作　　者：余岭燕 郭荣昌[1] 张蕊 YU Lingyan;GUO Rongchang;ZHANG Rui(School of Automation and Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2024年第1期186-196,共11页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR1RA254);兰州交通大学青年科学基金项目(2018021)。

摘　　要：针对铁路沿线滑坡危险性评价过程中的不确定性问题,引入博弈论和云模型评价方法,同时采用汉明距离验证相似度比较结果,对铁路沿线上某一滑坡进行滑坡危险性评价。首先选取降雨、地层岩性和土地利用类型等12项评价指标建立危险性评价指标体系,其次采用改进CRITIC法、变异系数法、G1法和优序图法确定基础权重,然后引入博弈论思想计算最优权重,并根据各评价指标的云模型和最优权重确定综合评价云,最后采用汉明距离验证综合评价云与评价标准云的相似度对比结果,根据最大相似度原则确定滑坡危险性等级,基于ArcGIS生成研究区滑坡危险性分布图。结果表明:滑坡危险性等级为四级,与实际情况基本一致,基于博弈论和云模型的滑坡危险性评价模型能够准确反映滑坡的等级;利用云模型实现定性与定量问题的转换,使滑坡危险性等级更直观,对滑坡灾害风险管理具有一定的参考价值。Aiming at the uncertainty in the process of landslide hazard evaluation along the railway,game theory and cloud model evaluation methods were introduced,and Hamming distance was used to verify the similarity comparison results to evaluate the landslide hazard along the railway.Firstly,12 influencing factors such as rainfall,stratigraphic lithology and land use type were selected to establish the risk evaluation index system.Secondly,the improved CRITIC method,coefficient of variation method,G1 method and order diagram method were adopted to determine the basic weight.Then the game theory is introduced to calculate the optimal weight,and the comprehensive evaluation cloud is determined according to the cloud model and the optimal weight of each evaluation index.Finally,the Hamming distance is used to verify the similarity comparison results of the comprehensive evaluation cloud and the evaluation standard cloud,and the landslide risk grade is determined according to the maximum similarity principle,and the landslide risk distribution map of the study area is generated based on ArcGIS.The results show that the landslide hazard grade is level four,which is basically consistent with the actual situation.The landslide hazard evaluation model based on game theory and cloud model can accurately reflect the grade of landslide.The cloud model is used to realize the conversion of qualitative and quantitative problems,which makes the landslide hazard level more intuitive and has certain reference value for landslide hazard risk management.

关 键 词：滑坡 博弈论 云模型 汉明距离 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]