红河烟区烟草黑胫病和野火病发生的气象因子分析与模型构建  

A study on key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases in tobacco-growing area of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture

作　　者：韩雨静 刘春明[2] 侯秋强 何建忠 单双吕 张鲁民[2] 陈天宏 杨桂林 何彦辉 陈作涛[2] 郭建 HAN Yujing;LIU Chunming;HOU Qiuqiang;HE Jianzhong;SHAN Shuanglu;ZHANG Lumin;CHEN Tianhong;YANG Guilin;HE Yanhui;CHEN Zuotao;GUO Jian(Key Laboratory of Tobacco Pest Monitoring&Integrated Management,Tobacco Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Qingdao,Shandong 266101,China;Honghe Branch Company of Yunnan Provincial Tobacco Company,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yunan 652300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院烟草研究所/烟草行业病虫害监测预警与综合防治重点实验室,山东青岛266101 [2]云南省烟草公司红河州公司,云南红河哈尼族彝族自治州652300

出　　处：《生物灾害科学》2024年第1期101-110,共10页Biological Disaster Science

基　　金：中国烟草总公司云南省公司科技计划项目[2021530000241020];中国烟草总公司绿色防控重大专项项目[110202101026(LS-01)]。

摘　　要：【目的】分析红河哈尼族彝族自治州2010—2021年间气候变化时空特征,构建烟草黑胫病和野火病预测模型。【方法】利用Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势分析、Pearson相关分析和逐步多元回归等方法对气象数据进行分析研究和模型构建。【结果】红河州在整个烟草大田期的日照时数有显著的下降趋势,泸西烟区在烟草旺长期、成熟后期的平均气温有显著的上升趋势,建水烟区在烟草旺长期、成熟前期和成熟后期的日照时数都有显著的下降趋势。利用与黑胫病和野火病具有显著相关的气象因子构建病害预警模型的R^(2)分别为0.9984和0.9752。【结论】建立关于黑胫病和野火病的预警模型,R^(2)值较高,拟合良好。[Objective]This study was conducted to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate changes in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture from 2010 to 2021 and construct the prediction models for tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases.[Method]The Mann-Kendall(MK)trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,and stepwise multiple regression were used to analyze meteorological data and then build the models.[Result]During the entire tobacco growing period,there was a significant decrease in the number of hours of sunshine in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture.In Lüxi tobacco-growing area,there was a significant increase in the average temperature during the vigorous growth and late maturity stages of tobacco.In Jianshui tobacco-growing area,the number of hours of sunshine during the vigorous growth,pre-maturity,and late maturity stages of tobacco all showed significant decreases.The R^(2) values for constructing disease warning models by using meteorological factors significantly correlated with black shank and wildfire diseases were 0.9984 and 0.9752,respectively.[Conclusion]Establish early warning models for black shank disease and wildfire disease,the R^(2) value is high and the fit is good.

关 键 词：烟叶病害 气象要素时空特征 预警模型 红河哈尼族彝族自治州 

分 类 号：S435.72[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]