A new method for evaluating the firing precision of multiple launch rocket system based on Bayesian theory  

作　　者：Yunfei Miao Guoping Wang Wei Tian 

机构地区：[1]College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China [2]Institute of Launch Dynamics,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China

出　　处：《Defence Technology（防务技术）》2024年第2期232-241,共10页Defence Technology

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11972193 and 92266201)。

摘　　要：How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.

关 键 词：Multiple launch rocket system Bayesian theory Simulation credibility Mixed prior distribution Firing precision 

分 类 号：TJ393[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]