中美货币政策协调可实现帕累托改进——基于博弈论框架的分析  

Monetary Policy Coordination Between China and USA Can Realize Pareto Improvement:Based on Analysis of Game Theory Framework

作　　者：魏玮 刘晓曙 WEI Wei;LIU Xiaoshu(Bank of Qingdao)

机构地区：[1]青岛银行

出　　处：《金融经济》2024年第1期6-15,共10页Finance Economy

摘　　要：2023年中美货币政策周期深度错位,在本轮货币政策周期下,美联储为解决美国高通胀问题,从量化宽松货币政策急转为紧缩性货币政策,处于加息周期;对比之下,我国央行坚持稳健的货币政策,当前整体处于降息周期。国际货币政策协调是指在经济全球化日益加深、各国经济政策溢出效应不断加大的背景下,各国货币当局为实现利益最大化或损失最小化,就货币政策以及相应措施进行商讨与制定。通过简化卡尔·瓦什政策协调模型构建两国货币政策的博弈论分析框架,发现进行货币政策协调的损失函数小于不进行货币政策协调的损失函数,即两国进行货币政策协调可以实现帕累托改进。中国与美国可以通过充分利用现行国际货币政策协调机制进行货币政策协调,同时可以推进现行国际合作机制改革,减小在现行国际合作平台进行中美货币政策协调的阻力。此外,中美还可以与其他大国携手设立非常规货币政策协调机制。在非常规货币政策越来越常态化的背景下,设立这一协调机制具有重要意义。In 2023,there is a significant misalignment in the monetary policy cycles between China and the United States.In this round of monetary policy cycles,the Federal Reserve has made an abrupt shift from a quantitative easing monetary policy to tightening monetary policy in order to address the issue of high inflation in the United States,entering a cycle of interest rate hikes.In contrast,the People's Bank of China(PBC)has maintained a prudent monetary policy,with the overall monetary policy currently in a cycle of interest rate cuts.International monetary policy coordination refers to the discussions and formulations of monetary policies and corresponding measures by various national monetary authorities to maximize benefits or minimize losses against the backdrop of deepening economic globalization and increasing spillover effects of economic policies.Based on simplifying Carl Walsh policy coordination model and constructing game theory analysis framework,we can find that loss function of two-country monetary policy coordination is smaller than that of two-country monetary policy incoordination.Therefore,monetary policy coordination between China and the U.S.can achieve Pareto improvement.China and the U.S.can coordinate their monetary policies by making full use of current international monetary policy coordination mechanism.At the same time,these two countries can promote reform of current international cooperation mechanism,in order to remove obstacles to the coordination of monetary policies between China and the U.S.on current international cooperation platform.In addition,China and the U.S.can also work together with other major countries to establish a coordination mechanism for unconventional monetary policies,which is meaningful in the context of the increasing normalization of unconventional monetary policies.

关 键 词：货币政策 博弈论框架 帕累托改进 协调机制 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]