人口结构、房产拥有与家庭金融脆弱性  

Population Structure, Property Ownership, and Household Financial Vulnerability

作　　者：李程 雷鸣 LI Cheng;LEI Ming(School of Economics and Management,Tiangong University)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2024年第1期16-28,共13页Finance Economy

摘　　要：随着我国人口结构问题显露,房地产业风险上升,家庭面临的金融风险也愈发受到关注。本文基于2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的数据,使用概率统计方法测度家庭金融脆弱性,研究老年抚养比、少儿抚养比和家庭规模对家庭金融脆弱性的影响,并进一步探究家庭房产在其中起到的作用。实证研究发现:第一,老年抚养比对家庭金融脆弱性有显著的缓解作用,而少儿抚养比和家庭规模的上升则会提高家庭金融脆弱性,这种影响在不同收入家庭和城乡家庭间存在异质性。第二,老年抚养比的上升能够减少家庭房产负债,提高家庭房产价值,而少儿抚养比和家庭规模的提高会增加房产负债和房产价值。第三,房产负债对家庭金融脆弱性有显著的正向影响,房产价值对家庭金融脆弱性有显著的负向影响。基于此,本文认为应当从维持房价稳定、降低养育成本、完善养老金融体系等几个方面减轻家庭债务负担,缓解家庭金融脆弱性。With the emergence of population structure issues in China,risks in the real estate industry are increasing,and attention to financial risks facing households is growing.This article uses data from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and employs probabilistic statistical methods to measure household financial vulnerability.It investigates the impact of the elderly dependency ratio,child dependency ratio,and family size on household financial vulnerability and further explores the role of family property ownership.Empirical research findings are as follows:Firstly,the elderly dependency ratio significantly mitigates household financial vulnerability,while increases in the child dependency ratio and family size exacerbate household financial vulnerability,with heterogeneity existing between different income groups and urban-rural families.Secondly,an increase in the elderly dependency ratio reduces household property debt and increases property value,whereas increases in the child dependency ratio and family size lead to higher property debt and property value.Thirdly,property debt has a significant positive impact on household financial vulnerability,while property value has a significant negative impact.Based on this,the article suggests alleviating household debt burden and mitigating household financial vulnerability from several aspects including maintaining stable housing prices,reducing childcare costs,and improving the pension financial system.

关 键 词：人口结构 家庭金融脆弱性 房产负债 房产价值 养老金融 抚养比 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] C924.24[社会学—人口学]