经济结构演变的国际经验与基本规律——兼论对中国式现代化的启示  

The International Experience and Basic Laws of the Evolution of Economic Structure:Also on the Enlightenment to Chinese Path to Modernization

作　　者：田野 倪红福 王文斌[5] TIAN Ye;NI Hong-fu;WANG Wen-bin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心 [3]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [4]中国社会科学院大学 [5]中国社会科学院大学经济学院

出　　处：《改革》2024年第2期25-42,共18页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下构建开放型经济体系研究”(22ZDA063)。

摘　　要：发达国家在逐步实现现代化的进程中无不经历了经济结构向高级化、合理化的转变过程。考察典型发达经济体不同经济发展阶段的经济增长、产业结构、需求结构、分配结构、贸易结构、人口结构、技术结构的演变特征,总结经济现代化演进过程中的经济结构演变规律,并从经济结构变化视角为以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴提供经验启示。研究发现:随着各国经济发展水平的提高,将呈现经济增长速度放缓,产业体系日益服务化,消费主导内需结构,收入分配差距扩大,全球价值链贸易成为主体,人口老龄化日益严重,产业数字化、智能化、服务化水平不断提高等七大规律。现阶段中国已经基本实现工业化,但面临着经济增长放缓、消费比重较低、服务业发展仍不充分、产业链供应链安全问题突出、收入差距处于高位、人口负增长和“未富先老”老龄化、本土化自主创新乏力和前沿核心技术依赖进口等问题。在中国式现代化建设过程中,应当保持经济量的合理增长和质的有效提升;构建高效服务业新体系,夯实经济发展的产业结构基础;着力扩大国内需求,形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环;抓住全球价值链重构机遇,实现国内国际经济循环相互促进;坚持以人民为中心的发展思想,在高质量发展中扎实推进共同富裕;积极应对人口老龄化,最大限度发挥人口对经济社会发展的能动作用;持续提高科技创新水平,加快建设以实体经济为支撑的现代化产业体系。Developed countries have all gone through a process of upgrading and rationalizing their economic structure in the process of gradually achieving modernization.This paper examines the evolution characteristics of economic growth,industrial structure,demand structure,distribution structure,trade structure,population structure,and technological structure at different stages of economic development in typical developed economies,summarizes the evolution law of economic structure in the evolution process of economic modernization,and provides experience enlightenment for comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese path to modernization from the perspective of economic structure change.Research has found that with the improvement of economic development levels in various countries,there will be a slowdown in economic growth,an increasingly service-oriented industrial system,a consumption driven domestic demand structure,an widening income distribution gap,global value chain trade becoming the mainstay,an increasingly severe aging population,and a continuous improvement in the digitalization,intelligence,and service-oriented levels of industries.At present,China has basically achieved industrialization,but faces problems such as slowing economic growth,low consumption proportion,insufficient development of the service industry,prominent security issues in the industrial and supply chains,high income gap,negative population growth and aging before getting rich,weak localization and independent innovation,and dependence on imports for cutting-edge core technologies.In the process of Chinese path to modernization,we should maintain the reasonable growth of economic volume and effective improvement of quality;build a new efficient service industry system and consolidate the industrial structure foundation for economic development;make efforts to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment;seize the opportunity of restructuri

关 键 词：中国式现代化 经济结构 共同富裕 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]