农业全要素生产率对农村劳动力非农转移的影响——本地效应和邻地效应  

The impacts of agricultural total factor productivity on the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force:Local effects and neighborhood effects

作　　者：王朝晖 宋琴 杨国永[1,2] WANG Zhao-hui;SONG Qin;YANG Guo-yong(School of Public Administration and Law,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;Fujian Rural Development Think Tank,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理与法学院,福建福州350002 [2]福建农村发展智库,福建福州350002

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2023年第6期1036-1046,共11页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BGL240)。

摘　　要：推进农村劳动力非农转移是中国实现现代化的重要任务,提高农业全要素生产率对于促进农村劳动力非农转移具有重要作用。本文基于2000—2020年省级面板数据,综合采用DEA-Malmquist、空间自相关法、空间滞后模型,分析农村劳动力非农转移的空间分异格局,探讨农业全要素生产率对农村劳动力非农转移的影响及其空间效应。研究结果表明:1)2000—2020年间,农业全要素生产率整体呈现波动上升态势;而农村劳动力非农转移呈现整体上升趋势,并呈现出显著的空间自相关特征,高值集聚区主要集中在胡焕庸线以南的东部沿海省份,低值集聚区主要在西部和北部的边境省份;2)农业全要素生产率能够对农村劳动力非农转移,尤其是离乡型非农转移产生显著的正向效应;3)农业全要素生产率对农村劳动力非农转移存在截然不同的本地和邻地效应,即推进本地农村劳动力非农转移,抑制异地农村劳动力非农转移。因此,本文建议加大农业要素投入、促进农业生产效率提升,破除技术壁垒、邻近省份密切要素交流等政策建议。Promoting the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force is an important task for China to realize modernization.Improving agricultural total factor productivity plays an important role in promoting the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force.Based on a provincial panel data from 2000 to 2020,this paper analyzed the spatial differentiation pattern of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force and explored the impacts of agricultural total factor productivity on non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force and its spatial effects by the DEA-Malmquist model,the spatial autocorrelation method,and spatial lag model.Results show that the total factor productivity of China’s agriculture shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020;the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force displays an overall upward trend with significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics.The high-value agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal provinces south of the HU Huanyong line,and the low-value agglomeration areas are mainly in the western and northern border provinces.Agricultural total factor productivity can have a significant positive effect on the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force,especially the long-distance nonagricultural transfer of rural labor force.At the same time,agricultural total factor productivity has different local and neighboring effects on the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force,that is,promoting the non-agricultural transfer of local rural labor force and inhibiting the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force in different places.Based on the above results,this paper suggests:increasing the input of agricultural factors,promoting the improvement of agricultural production efficiency,eliminating technical barriers,and encouraging factor exchanges among neighboring provinces.

关 键 词：农业全要素生产率 农村劳动力 非农转移 本地效应 邻地效应 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]