新型城镇化对扩大内需的影响机制研究——中国257个地级以上城市的数据实证  

Research on the Influence Mechanism of New Urbanization on the Expansion of Domestic Demand:Empirical Data of 257 Cities above Prefecture-level in China

作　　者：于爱芝[1] 汪洋 YU Aizhi;WANG Yang

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京102200

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第1期112-120,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：教育部乡村振兴创新试验专项资助(010154923001)。

摘　　要：基于“国家新型城镇化综合试点政策”构建准自然实验,运用2010~2019年全国市辖区统计数据以及多期DID分析方法,实证检验了新发展格局下新型城镇化试点对扩大内需的影响。研究结果表明,新型城镇化试点政策有效提升了居民消费,扩大了社会投资和带动政府消费。机制检验发现,新型城镇化试点通过收入效应、财富效应和公共资本效应加快释放内需潜力。进一步研究显示,新型城镇化试点政策效应受城市人口规模的影响,表现出双门槛效应;同时,地方政府财政压力及国家级城市群的设立也会对新型城镇化试点政策成效产生差异化影响。A quasi-natural experiment is constructed based on the "National Comprehensive Pilot Policy of New Urbanization", and the impact of the pilot policy of new urbanization on expanding domestic demand under the new development pattern is empirically examined by using national municipal district statistical data from 2010-2019 and multi-period DID analysis methods. The findings show that the new urbanization pilot policy effectively enhances residents′ consumption, expands social investment and drives government consumption. The mechanism test finds that the new urbanization pilot accelerates the release of domestic demand potential through income effect, wealth effect and public capital effect. Further research shows that the policy effect of the new urbanization pilot is affected by the size of urban population, which exhibits a double threshold effect;at the same time, the financial pressure of local governments and the establishment of national-level city clusters also have differentiated impacts on the effectiveness of the new urbanization pilot policy.

关 键 词：新型城镇化试点政策 扩大内需 多期DID 异质性处理效应 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]