稳定币是传统加密货币的“转换中介”还是“投资替代”——基于地缘政治风险冲击视角  

Stablecoins as"Transitional Intermediary"or"Investment Substitute"for Traditional Cryptocurrencies:From the Perspective of Geopolitical Risk Shocks

作　　者：申琳[1] 张稳 马丹[2] SHEN Lin;ZHANG Wen;MA Dan

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经济学院 [2]浙江工商大学泰隆金融学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第1期87-103,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(22YJA790042)。

摘　　要：文章基于地缘政治风险冲击视角,采用2017年1月1日至2022年12月18日十八种市值领先的传统加密货币的非平衡面板数据构建面板平滑转换回归模型,探讨了稳定币是充当传统加密货币的“转换中介”还是“投资替代”这一问题。研究发现:随着稳定币发展水平的提升,稳定币作为传统加密货币“投资替代”的功能显现,地缘政治风险对传统加密货币价格波动的刺激效应会得到抑制。异质性检验证实,对于发行时间不同、遵循BEP-20标准与否的传统加密货币来说,稳定币都可以起到“投资替代”的作用。机制检验及调节效应分析表明,无论稳定币发展水平低还是高,地缘政治风险都可以通过影响传统加密货币收益率来影响其价格波动;在不同的稳定币发展水平下,美元流动性对地缘政治风险与传统加密货币价格波动之间关系的调节效应均显著。From the perspective of geopolitical risk shocks,this paper constructs a PSTR model based on the unbalanced panel data of 18 traditional cryptocurrencies with leading market values from January 1,2017 to December 18,2022 to explore whether stablecoins act as"transitional intermediary"or"investment substitute"for traditional cryptocurrencies.The research reveals that with the improvement of the development level of stablecoins,their function as"investment substitute"for traditional cryptocurrencies becomes evident and the stimulating effect of geopolitical risks on price volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies will be inhibited.Heterogeneity tests demonstrate that stablecoins can act as"investment substitute"for traditional cryptocurrencies regardless of their issuance time or adherence to BEP-20 standard.Mechanism test and moderating effect analysis indicate that geopolitical risks can affect price volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies by influencing their rate of return regardless of the low or high development level of stablecoins;at different development levels of stablecoins,the moderating effect of US dollar liquidity on the relationship between geopolitical risks and price volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies is significant.

关 键 词：地缘政治风险 加密货币 稳定币 价格波动 美元流动性 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]