基于面积重叠法的概率盒全局灵敏度计算分析  

Global sensitivity analysis of probability box based on area overlap method

作　　者：张保强 李潇乾 罗华耿 颜伟杰 汤鸿杰 ZHANG Bao-qiang;LI Xiao-qian;LUO Hua-geng;YAN Wei-jie;TANG Hong-jie(School of Aerospace Engineering,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361000,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学航空航天学院,厦门361000

出　　处：《控制与决策》2024年第2期467-473,共7页Control and Decision

基　　金：中国航空发动机集团产学研合作项目(HFZL2020CXY004,HFZL2020CXY009);国家科技重大专项项目(2019-I-0006-0006)。

摘　　要：针对随机与认知混合不确定性的概率盒灵敏度分析问题,提出一种利用概率盒缩减前后重叠面积作为不确定性度量的全局灵敏度分析方法.混合不确定性在航空航天仿真系统中广泛存在,概率盒方法用于随机与认知混合不确定性的表征在学术界已被广泛应用.首先,介绍传统概率盒灵敏度分析的不确定性缩减法理论,在此基础上,进一步考虑概率盒在位置和形状上的偏移量;然后,通过计算缩减前后的概率盒面积重叠量来表征各输入不确定性的影响程度,阐述其实施步骤;最后,通过数值算例对所提出方法与传统不确定性缩减方法进行全局灵敏度分析的对比和验证,并应用于发动机总体性能仿真计算灵敏度排序.研究结果表明,所提出面积重叠方法比传统不确定性缩减法适用范围更广,计算结果更准确.Aiming at the sensitivity analysis of probability box with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties,a global sensitivity analysis method using the overlap area before-and-after probability box pinching as an uncertainty measure is proposed.Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are widely existed in aerospace systems and the probability box method has been widely used in quantifying these uncertainties.The theory of an uncertainty reduction method is introduced for traditional probability box sensitivity analysis.Based on this theory,the position and shape of the offset of probability box is further considered.The influence degree of each input uncertainty is characterized by calculating the overlap of probability box area before-and-after reduction.The detailed implementation steps are described.Through numerical examples,the global sensitivity of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional method.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the sensitivity ranking of an aero engine overall performance simulation.The results show that the proposed method is more applicable than the traditional pinching method,and the results are more accurate.

关 键 词：概率盒 混合不确定性 全局灵敏度 不确定性缩减法 面积重叠法 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]