人口收缩背景下城镇建设用地的挑战与出路——以我国东北三省为例  

Challenges and Prospects of Urban Construction Land in the Context of Population Shrinkage:A Case Study of Three Northeastern Provinces in China

作　　者：衣霄翔[1] 王淑钰 张郝萍 邹志翀 袁兆坤 张力月 YI Xiaoxiang;WANG Shuyu;ZHANG Haoping;ZOU Zhichong;YUAN Zhaokun;ZHANG Liyue

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院、自然资源部寒地国土空间规划与生态保护修复重点实验室 [2]哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院

出　　处：《城市规划学刊》2023年第6期68-78,共11页Urban Planning Forum

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“东北地区城镇人口变化趋势及空间布局优化研究”(项目编号:23RKB135);黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目“人口收缩背景下的城市体检及方法研究”(项目编号:YQ2021E027)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国东北三省城镇人口收缩现象呈加剧趋势,为城镇建设用地发展带来全新挑战。系统评估东北三省城镇建设用地发展状况,旨在把握挑战,寻求出路,为促进收缩城市建设用地高质量发展提供思路。在研判东北三省城镇人口收缩趋势的基础上,运用人地关系脱钩模型、超效率SBM-DEA模型、空间计量模型评估城镇建设用地的规模、效率,分析规模与效率之间的关系。结果表明,城镇人口收缩十分容易造成人地关系失调,且东北三省城镇建设用地已进入规模收益递减阶段,需警惕用地低效问题。基于上述研究结果,厘清人口收缩背景下城镇建设用地的正确发展路径,并从技术准备、制度保障、市场调节三方面提出实现建设用地高质量发展的具体策略。The acceleration of urban population shrinkage in China's Three Northeastern Provinces in recent years has introduced new challenges to urban development.This paper systematically assesses the current status of urban development in these provinces,aiming to comprehend challenges,explore solutions,and generate ideas for high-quality development in shrinking cities.Sequentially employing three modelsnamely,human-land relationship decoupling model,super-efficiency SBM-DEA model,and spatial econometric modelthe paper evaluates the scale and efficiency of urban construction land and analyzes their relationship based on the urban population trends in the Three Northeastern Provinces.The research reveals that urban population shrinkage can easily lead to imbalances between population and land use.Currently,the utilization of urban construction land in the Three Northeastern Provinces has reached the stage of diminishing returns to scale,underscoring the need to address efficiency issue in land-use.Furthermore,the paper clarifies approaches to urban development in the context of population shrinkage.Specific strategies to achieve high-quality urban development are proposed from three aspects:technical preparation,institutional guarantee,and market regulation.

关 键 词：东北振兴 收缩城市 人地关系 建设用地效率 国土空间 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]