How does Mei-yu precipitation respond to climate change?  

作　　者：Bo Sun Rufan Xue Wanling Li Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Botao Zhou Huijun Wang 

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China [3]Nansen Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《National Science Review》2023年第12期131-143,共13页国家科学评论（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991283);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFF0801704)。

摘　　要：Mei-yu is an important weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley(YRV)region.This study investigates the changes in the characteristics of Mei-yu under global warming and the potential reasons based on observation and reanalysis data during 1961-2022.Notable increasing long-term trends are detected in the number of days without rainfall(NDWOR),the intensity of rainfall events,and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events(EPEs)in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period(15 June-10 July)over past decades.The increasing trend in NDWOR is attributed to decreased relative humidity over land surface and a longer time for the air to be replenished with moisture after rainfall events in a warming climate.The increasing trends in the intensity of rainfall events and frequency/intensity of EPEs are attributed to the strengthened transient water vapor convergence and convection in the atmosphere under global warming.Furthermore,the response of Mei-yu to 2℃ of global warming with respect to the pre-industrial climate is analysed using CMIP6 models.The results suggest that the NDWOR,intensity of rainfall events and frequency of EPEs will increase in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period under the 2℃ warming scenario,which implies a more challenging climate risk management in the future.Overall,the intensity of rainfall events during the Mei-yu period has the most significant response to climate change in observations and projections.The model results have a relatively large uncertainty.

关 键 词：MEI-YU extreme precipitation events days without rainfall water vapor 2°C warming scenario 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467