1990—2019年启东市心脏病死亡趋势及去死因期望寿命预测  

Trends of heart disease death and prediction of life expectancy without cause of death in Qidong City in 1990-2019

作　　者：丁璐璐 张永辉 徐源佑 陈永胜 王军 朱健 DING Lulu;ZHANG Yonghui;XU Yuanyou;CHEN Yongsheng;WANG Jun;ZHU Jian(Department of Etiology,Qidong People′s Hospital/Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong,Jiangsu 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所南通大学附属启东医院病因室,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第2期30-33,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：南通市卫健委2020年科研课题(QB2020025)。

摘　　要：目的 分析1990—2019年江苏省启东市心脏病死亡趋势及去死因寿命情况,为预防和控制心脏病提供参考依据。方法 通过启东市居民死因登记监测系统收集1990—2019年启东市居民心脏病死亡资料,计算粗死亡率(Crude Rate, CR)和中国标化死亡率(China Age-Standardized Rate, CASR),潜在减寿年数(Potential Years of Life Lost, PYLL)、平均减寿年数(Average Years of Life Lost, AYLL)、潜在寿命损失年数率(Potential Years of Life Lost, PYLLR)、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命等指标,采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析心脏病死亡趋势,并使用SAS9.2软件采用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型进行趋势预测。结果 1990—2019年启东市居民因心脏病死亡27 762人,CR为81.20/10万,APC为3.73%,男性心脏病死亡12 358人,CR为73.24/10万,APC为3.86%,女性心脏病死亡15 404人,CR为88.95/10万,APC为3.63%,CR均呈上升趋势(P均<0.001)。心脏病PYLL为66192.00人年,AYLL为13.23人/年,PYLLR为2.16‰。心脏病所带来的平均寿命损失在逐渐提高:1990年为0.89岁,2019年已上升至1.85岁,APC为0.41%(P<0.001,变化趋势差异具有统计学意义)。预测结果显示去心脏病期望寿命达到88.17岁。结论 1990—2019年启东市心脏病粗死亡率呈上升趋势,导致心脏病的寿命损失也在逐年上升,女性心脏病死亡率和寿命损失均高于男性,应进一步采用有针对性的干预措施,降低辖区内居民心脏病的死亡率。Objective To analyze the trend of heart disease death and the life expectancy without cause of death in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019,and to provide reference for the prevention and control of heart disease.Methods Data on heart disease deaths among residents in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 were collected through the Qidong City Death Registration and Monitoring System.The crude mortality rate(CR)and Chinese age-standardized mortality rate(CASR),potential years of life loss(PYLL),average years of life loss(AYLL),potential life loss years rate(PYLLR),life expectancy,and life expectancy without cause of death were calculated,and the annual percentage change(APC)was used to analyze the trend of heart disease death.Using SAS9.2 software,the death trend prediction was conducted by the ARIMA model in time series analysis.Results From 1990 to 2019,27762 residents died of heart disease in Qidong City,with a CR of 81.20/100000 and an APC of 3.734%.There were 12358 deaths of heart disease in men,with a CR of 73.24/100000 and an APC of 3.86%,while there were 15404 deaths of heart disease in women,with a CR of 88.95/100000 and an APC of 3.63%.CR showed an upward trend(all P<0.001).The PYLL for heart disease was 66192.00 person-years,the AYLL was 13.23 person-years,and the PYLLR was 2.16‰.The life expectancy loss from heart disease was gradually increasing:0.89 years in 1990 to 1.85 years in 2019,with an APC of 0.405%(P<0.001,a statistically significant trend).The prediction results showed that in 2029,the life expectancy after heart disease would reach 88.17 years.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the crude mortality rate of heart disease in Qidong City has showed an increasing trend,leading to an increasing loss of life due to heart disease year by year.The mortality rate and life loss of heart disease in women are higher than those in men.Targeted intervention measures should be further adopted to reduce the mortality rate of heart disease among residents in Qidong.

关 键 词：心脏病 死亡率 死亡趋势 期望寿命 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]