流凌封河预报指标法及其在黄河内蒙古河段的应用  

Indexes Analysis Method for Ice⁃Run and Freeze⁃Up Forecasting in Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River

作　　者：陈冬伶[1] 霍建伟 刘吉峰[1] CHEN Dongling;HUO Jianwei;LIU Jifeng(Hydrological Bureau,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450004,China;Yellow River Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004 [2]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第3期28-32,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243221);黄委水文局专业技术创新团队项目(凌情预报技术);青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司科技项目(KY-C-2022-SD01)。

摘　　要：把流凌封河累积负气温作为黄河内蒙古河段封河预报关键指标,明确累积负气温与封河流量、降温强度、河槽形态等的关系,确定现有河槽形态以及海勃湾水库运用影响下不同流量和降温强度封河所需的累积负气温,并建立了流凌封河累积负气温预估公式。指标法可以在很大程度上提高黄河内蒙古河段封河预报的预见期与精度。Taking the cumulative negative air temperature from ice runs presence to freeze⁃up as the key index factor for the prediction of freeze⁃up in Inner Mongolia reach,the cumulative negative temperature index required for the formation of freeze⁃up under different dynamic,thermal and river channel conditions was clarified,and a prediction model for freeze⁃up index was established.The index analysis method for freeze⁃up forecasting could greatly improve the accuracy and the forecasting period of freeze⁃up forecasting.

关 键 词：封河指标 封河流量 河槽形态 累积负气温 黄河内蒙古河段 

分 类 号：TV875[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1