纵向分权、横向竞争与地方政府支出预算不确定性  

Vertical Decentralization,Horizontal Competition and Local Government Expenditure Budget Uncertainty

作　　者：李鑫 邓淑莲[1] LI Xin;DENG Shulian(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经论丛》2024年第2期25-35,共11页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：财政部课题(2023110063)。

摘　　要：财政分权体制是影响我国地方政府支出预算不确定性的深层次原因。本文基于省级和地级市层面的相关数据,从财政纵向失衡和横向政府竞争两个方面探讨我国财政分权体制对地方政府支出预算不确定性的影响及其潜在机制。研究发现,财政纵向失衡和横向政府竞争均会加剧支出预算不确定性。机制分析表明,财政纵向失衡主要通过影响地方政府对转移支付的依赖程度加剧支出预算不确定性,且转移支付的不确定性会扩大这一影响效应;横向政府竞争主要通过地方政府对于自有财力的低估行为加剧支出预算不确定性。最后,从影响效应的大小来看,财政纵向失衡对地级市层面支出预算不确定性的影响大于省级层面,而横向政府竞争对省级层面的影响更大。China's fiscal decentralization system is the deep reason that affects the local government expenditure budget uncertainty.Based on the relevant data at the provincial level and prefecture level,this paper discusses the impact of China's fiscal decentralization system on local government expenditure budget uncertainty and its potential mechanism from two aspects of fiscal vertical imbalance and horizontal government competition.It finds that both vertical fiscal imbalance and horizontal government competition exacerbate expenditure budget uncertainty.Mechanism analysis finds that fiscal vertical imbalance intensifies expenditure budget uncertainty mainly by influencing local governments'dependence on transfer payments,and the uncertainty of transfer payments will expand this effect.The main channel through which horizontal government competition aggravates expenditure budget uncertainty is the underestimation of local governments'own financial resources.Finally,with regard to the size of the impact effect,the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance at the prefecture level is higher than that at the provincial level,but horizontal government competition has a greater impact on provincial level.

关 键 词：财政纵向失衡 横向政府竞争 支出预算不确定性 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]