内生全要素生产率、经济波动与通货膨胀  

Endogenous total factor productivity,economic fluctuation and inflation

作　　者：张伍涛 盘业哲 姚金海 ZHANG Wu-tao;PAN Ye-zhe;YAO Jin-hai(School of Economics and Management,Huzhou College,Huzhou,Zhejiang 313000;Guangzhou Development Zone Strategy Research Institute,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510670)

机构地区：[1]湖州学院经济管理学院,浙江湖州313000 [2]广州开发区战略研究院,广东广州510670

出　　处：《价格月刊》2024年第3期28-38,共11页

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学重点项目“资产建设视域下新就业形态劳动者社会保障制度创新研究”(编号:24NDJC03Z);湖州学院校级科研项目“数字金融对产业生态化的影响研究”(编号:2023HXKM30)。

摘　　要：通过在研发部门引入内生全要素生产率,构建具有内生全要素生产率机制的DSGE模型,研究在内生全要素生产率机制下经济波动对产出、消费、投资等主要经济变量的动态效应,探究内生全要素生产率的主要驱动因素,并分析内生全要素生产率与通货膨胀的相互作用。研究发现:第一,在内生TFP机制下,需求侧冲击是经济变量波动的主要驱动因素,尤其是货币政策冲击;投资品价格冲击是供给侧最主要的外部冲击。第二,内生全要素生产率是全要素生产率的决定性因素;货币政策冲击是内生全要素生产率波动最重要驱动因素;技术转化率的波动上升是中国内生全要素生产率增长的主要原因。第三,内生全要素生产率对通货膨胀产生抑制作用,内生TFP机制下菲利普斯曲线的斜率更平稳;货币政策冲击是通货膨胀波动最主要的因素。This paper introduces endogenous total factor productivity into the R&D department,constructs a DSGE model with endogenous total factor productivity mechanism,studies the dynamic effects of economic fluctuations on major economic variables such as output,consumption,and investment under the endogenous total factor productivity mechanism,explores the main driving factors of endogenous total factor productivity,and analyzes the interaction between endogenous total factor productivity and inflation.Research has found that,firstly,under the endogenous TFP mechanism,demand side impacts are the main driving factor for economic variable fluctuations,especially monetary policy impacts;The price impact of investment products is the main ex-ternal impact on the supply side.Secondly,endogenous total factor productivity is the determining factor of total factor productivity;Monetary policy impacts are the most important driving factor for endogenous total factor productivity fluctuations;The fluctuation and increase in technology conversion rate is the main reason for the growth of endogenous total factor productivity in China.Thirdly,endogenous total factor productivity has a sup-pressive effect on inflation,and the slope of the Phillips curve is more stable under the endogenous TFP mecha-nism;Monetary policy impacts are the main factor contributing to inflation fluctuations.

关 键 词：内生全要素生产率 劳动生产率 货币政策冲击 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]