“土耳其世纪”国家战略愿景探析  

An Analysis of the New National Strategic Vision of“Century of Tirkiye”

作　　者：梁钦 李毓博 Liang Qin;Li Yubo

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系研究院 [2]英国杜伦大学政府和国际关系学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第1期82-100,137,共20页

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目《黑海通史研究》阶段性成果(项目批准号22JZD037)。

摘　　要：当前,国际格局加速演进,区域大国土耳其在百年诞辰之际提出“土耳其世纪”这一新的国家战略愿景。“土耳其世纪”国家战略既涉及土耳其国内政治、经济、安全、外交,也是土耳其在总结百年治国经验基础上对于第二个百年的战略规划,更是土耳其对于未来国际秩序的理解和筹划。土耳其此时出台这一新的国家战略源于埃尔多安及其政党的选举需求,更源自新地缘政治现实的对策预案及由此产生的“土耳其世纪”大国政治想象,同时基于土耳其国家的独立自主理想。“土耳其世纪”愿景能否顺利实现不仅仅取决于土耳其的主观努力,还有赖于区域和国际大环境的助力,严峻的外部形势将会在很大程度上限制其目标的达成。In the context of the accelerated evolution of the international situation,the new national strategic vision of the"Century of Turkiye"was put forward on the centenary of the Turkish Republic.The national strategy of the"Century of Turkiye"involves not only Turkiye's domestic politics,economy,security and diplomacy,but also its strategic vision for the next hundred years on the basis of the national governance in the past century,and its understanding and designing for the future international order.The introduction of this new national strategy stems from the electoral needs of Erdogan and his party,the response to the new geopolitical realities,and the Turkish ideal of independence and autonomy.The success of the vision of the"Century of Turkiye"will depend not only on Turkiye's efforts,but also on the trends of regional and international order.The severe neighboring situation will greatly limit the possibility forTurkiye to achieve its goal.

关 键 词：新兴经济体 土耳其世纪 国家战略 黑海区域安全 埃尔多安 

分 类 号：D737.4[政治法律—政治学]