江汉平原一次大雪过程的检验分析  

Inspection Analysis of A Heavy Snow Process in the Jianghan Plain

作　　者：贺嘉 李康丽 王佳丽 He Jia(Jingmen Meteorological Bureau,Jingmen,Hubei 448000)

机构地区：[1]荆门市气象局,湖北荆门448000

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第12期114-116,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：荆门市气象局科研项目(2022-04)。

摘　　要：利用常规观测资料、NCEP-FNL0.25°×0.25°再分析资料、CMA预报模式等资料,从天气实况、环流形势、物理量场和模式检验等方面,对江汉平原2022年1月27—29日大雪天气过程进行分析,结果表明:(1)此次大雪过程受稳定的南支槽和东移的高原槽与低层持续较强冷空气的共同影响;(2)涡度平流和温度平流均提供了较好的条件,水汽通量散度也有强烈辐合,但水汽通量高值区偏南,导致实况降雪远远偏弱;(3)此次过程中CMA模式对江汉平原南部降水量级的预报效果较好,对北部预报效果较差;(4)CMA模式对江汉平原附近急流位置预报不稳定,对850hPa温度场的预报效果较好。Based on the conventional observational data,the NCEP-FNL 0.25°×0.25°reanalysis data,and the CMA model,the synoptic condition,the circulation situation,the physical quantity field and the model test were analyzed,the heavy snow process in Jianghan Plain from January 27 to 29,2022 was analyzed.The results showed that:(1)the heavy snow process was influenced by the stable South Branch Trough,the eastward moving plateau trough and the persistent strong cold air in the lower layer;(2)both vorticity advection and temperature advection provided good conditions,and the divergence of water vapor flux was also strongly converged,but the high value area of water vapor flux was southward,which leads to the far and weak snowfall;(3)the CMA model was more effective in the southern part of Jianghan Plain than in the northern part;(4)the CMA model was not stable in predicting the location of the jet stream near Jianghan Plain,and has a good effect in predicting the temperature field at 850 hPa.

关 键 词：大雪 GRAPES模式 江汉平原 

分 类 号：P458.122[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]