2021年北京市海淀区一次短时强降水预报预警分析  

Analysis of A Short-term Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning in Haidian District,Beijing in 2021

作　　者：牛敏 刘宇盟 李春玲 戴高菊 Niu Min(Haidian District Meteorological Service,Beijing 100080)

机构地区：[1]北京海淀区气象局,北京100080

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第12期173-175,178,共4页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：北京市气象局科技项目(青年基金类)(BMBKJ202201011)。

摘　　要：利用雷达、卫星及地面气象站常规观测资料,对2021年出现在北京市海淀区的一次强对流天气过程进行分析,并对此次过程的预报预警服务情况进行总结。得出以下结论:此次过程是冷涡后偏北气流影响,高空干冷平流强迫,地面东北风与偏东风山前辐合的结果,雷暴趋向于地面辐合区移动,产生短时强降水。整层湿度条件较好,850 hPa比湿接近12 g/kg,为短时强降水的形成提供有利的水汽条件。850 hPa暖平流、较高的对流有效位能、强垂直风切,是此次对流迅速组织发展、形成强对流风暴的主要原因。地面极大风的风速区及风向辐合区,上游5min雨强大值区,对暴雨预警发布提供有重要指示意义。Using conventional observation data from radar,satellites,and ground meteorological stations,analyze a severe convective weather process that occurred in Haidian District,Beijing in 2021,and summarize the forecast and early warning services for this process.The following conclusion can be drawn:this process was influenced by the northward airflow after the cold vortex,forced by the high-altitude dry cold advection,and the convergence of the surface northeast wind and the easterly wind in front of the mountain.The thunderstorm tends to move towards the surface convergence area,producing short-term heavy precipitation.The overall humidity conditions were good,with a specific humidity of nearly 12 g/kg at 850 hPa,providing favorable water vapor conditions for the formation of short-term heavy rainfall.The 850 hPa warm advection,high convective effective potential energy,and strong vertical wind shear are the main reasons for the rapid organization and development of convection and the formation of a strong convective storm.The extremely strong wind speed area and wind direction convergence area on the ground,and the upstream 5 min strong rain value area are of great significance for the issuance of rainstorm warning.

关 键 词：短时强降水 雷暴大风 对流云团 预警服务 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]