供应不确定情境下制造商企业采购策略选择  

Manufacturer Purchasing Strategy Selection Considering Supply Uncertainty

作　　者：梁力军[1] 袁苗苗 孙玉璇 LIANG Lijun;YUAN Miaomiao;SUN Yuxuan(School of Information Management,Beijing Information Science&Technology University,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学信息管理学院,北京100192

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第1期75-85,共11页Logistics Technology

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目“北京市互联网金融风险画像与风险图谱构建研究”(19YJB015);审计署内审课题“面向反舞弊审计场景的企业内部审计智能化实施研究”(2109)。

摘　　要：作为供应链条上的关键节点,制造商企业与其上下游企业之间在“四流”方面有着紧密关联,其供应链结构的稳定性受到内、外部等多重因素影响,加之供应中断风险的突发性和多样性,一旦发生供应中断则将会对制造商企业造成巨大经济损失,故研究供应不确定条件下制造商企业的采购应对行为至关重要。基于制造商企业视角,将与其关联度最紧密的一、二级供应商企业作为供应对象,构建模拟供应不确定条件下制造商企业采购应对模式的数学推导模型,运用统计工具绘制出推导结果,并对相关参数进行全面的敏感性分析,然后通过数值分析研究市场价格的敏感性、供应商企业配件合格率等因素对制造商企业采购策略产生的影响,最后为供应中断条件下如何提升供应链结构的稳定性提供相应的建议。通过该研究,以期实现在供应不确定条件下制造商企业最大的期望利润,以及解决因采购策略不当所引起的经济问题。As a key node in the supply chain,the manufacturing enterprise is closely connected to its up⁃stream and downstream reaches via the flow of supply chain elements.Since the stability of the supply chain structure is affected by multiple internal and external factors,and in light of the suddenness and diversity and the risks of supply interruption,the manufacturing enterprise will suffer huge economic losses once such event of supply interruption occurs.Therefore,it is crucial to study the purchasing response behavior of the manufac⁃turing enterprise under conditions of supply uncertainty.From the perspective of the manufacturing enterprise,with the first-and second-tier supplier companies most closely associated to the manufacturing enterprise as the supply object,this paper introduces a number of factors such as supply qualification rate and opening inventory,etc.,and constructs the single-source and dualsource purchasing strategy models of the manufacturing enterprise under supply uncertainty through simula⁃tion.Next,it explores the impact of the potential supply interruption risk on the manufacturing company’s de⁃cision-making after fully considering the opening inventory,supply product qualification rate,and price-elas⁃tic market demand,uses the statistical tool to draw the derivation results,and conducts a comprehensive sensi⁃tivity analysis on the relevant parameters.Then,through numerical analysis,it looks at the impact of factors such as market price sensitivity,and supplier product qualification rate,etc.on the manufacturing company's purchasing strategy.Finally,relevant conclusions are drawn:First,in event of supply interruption,there exists the variable of supply interruption probability,which,in order to maximize its profit,the manufacturing enter⁃prise should consider when deciding the optimal purchasing strategy most beneficial to the development of the company;second,since there are many variables such as opening inventory,interruption risk probability,and market demand change rate,e

关 键 词：供应不确定 供应中断 采购策略模式 供应链结构 

分 类 号：F406[经济管理—产业经济] F224