碳排放权交易对试点地区绿色发展的影响及溢出效应——基于PSM-DID和SDID模型的实证分析  

The Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading Pilots on Green Development--Empirical Analysis Based on PSM-DID and SDID Models

作　　者：余谦[1] 吴婷[1] 覃一冬[1] 贾鹏 Yu Qian;Wu Ting;Qin Yidong;Jia Peng(School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;CCCCTHEC Third Engineering Company TD.,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院,武汉430070 [2]中交三公局第三工程有限公司,武汉430033

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2024年第3期104-114,共11页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：2022年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“面向关键战略材料突破的国家创新联合体构建与实施路径研究”(项目编号:22&ZD154);中交集团科技研发重点项目“交通基础设施全生命周期碳排放监测系统研究”(项目编号:2023013)。

摘　　要：在碳中和、碳达峰背景下,本文选用2003~2021年全国273个地级市的面板数据,以碳排放权交易试点(CETP)为出发点,用生态效率测度绿色发展水平,通过PSM-DID和SDID模型实证检验了CETP对绿色发展的直接效应、间接效应和空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)CETP能显著促进绿色发展,且通过了安慰剂检验和稳健性检验;(2)CETP产生的创新效应对绿色发展有推动作用,但产业结构效应不显著;(3)CETP对周边试点城市产生了显著负向的溢出效应,但对非试点城市的生态效率无明显影响。最后,结合以上研究结论,提出了政策建议。Under the background of achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peaking goals,this paper selects the panel data of 273 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2021,takes the carbon emission trading pilot(CETP)as the starting point,measures the level of green development with ecological efficiency,empirically tests the direct effects,indirect effects and spatial spillover effects of CETP on green development by PSM-DID and SDID models,and finds that:(1)CETP can significantly pro⁃mote green development,and has passed the placebo test and robustness test.(2)The innovation effect generated by CETP has a promoting effect on green development,but the industrial structure effect is not significant.(3)CETP has a significant negative spillover effect on surrounding pilot cities,but has no obvious impact on the ecological efficiency of non-pilot cities.Finally,com⁃bined with the above research conclusions,policy recommendations are put forward.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易试点 绿色发展水平 生态效率 间接效应 空间溢出效应 碳配额 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学] F124.5