面向数据不完备条件下的飞机结构件工时预测研究  

Research on Time Prediction of Aircraft Structural Parts with Incomplete Data

作　　者：刘振宇 曹珍珍 茅健 毕庆贞[3,4] LIU Zhenyu;CAO Zhenzhen;MAO Jian;BI Qingzhen(School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600;Chengdu Yongfeng Technology Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610000;Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 201100;Shanghai Tuopu CNC Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201100)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学机械与汽车工程学院,上海201600 [2]成都永峰科技有限公司,成都610000 [3]上海交通大学,上海201100 [4]上海拓璞数控科技股份有限公司,上海201100

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2023年第12期3040-3044,共5页Computer & Digital Engineering

摘　　要：针对数据不完备条件下难以准确快速获取工时的问题,提出一种基于工序属性分类的工时计算方法。首先,按照不同工序对工时变化的贡献程度,将工序分为定额工序与变额工序。对于定额工序,提出一种基于成组技术的定额工时库模板建立方法,以提高现有数据的泛用性;对于变额工序,采用群决策一致理论与灰色关联理论构建理想模型,得到变额工时预测值。验证结果表明,预测工时与实际工时的误差小于10%,证明了该方法的精度与可行性。Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to obtain the man-hour accurately and quickly under the condition of in-complete data,a man-hour calculation method based on process attribute classification is proposed.Firstly,the working procedure is divided into fixed working procedure and variable working procedure according to the contribution degree of different working pro-cedure to the change of working hour.In order to improve the universality of the existing data,a method of establishing the template of the quota time base based on the group technology is put forward.For the variable working procedure,the ideal model is construct-ed by using group decision agreement theory and grey relation theory,and the variable working time prediction value is obtained.The validation results show that the error between the predicted man-hour and the actual man-hour is less than 10%,which proves the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：飞机结构件 变额工时 成组技术 定额工时 灰色关联 

分 类 号：F245[经济管理—劳动经济]