台风“黑格比”造成浙东北滞后型暴雨成因分析及多模式预报检验  

CAUSE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION OF RETARDED RAINSTORM RELATED WITH TYPHOON HAGUPIT IN NORTHEASTERN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

作　　者：吴俊杰 段晶晶 辛欣 周炳君 王健捷 WU Junjie;DUAN jingjing;XIN Xin;ZHOU Bingjun;WANG Jianjie(Ningbo Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province,Ningbo 315012,Zhejiang,China;Yinzhou Meteorological Station of Zhejiang Province,Yinzhou 315100,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省宁波市气象台,浙江宁波315012 [2]浙江省鄞州区气象局,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2023年第6期857-871,共15页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省预报员专项(2020YBY06);国家自然科学基金项目(42105135)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于地面常规加密观测及ERA5再分析、热带气旋最佳路径、雷达卫星等资料,利用天气诊断方法探讨了2020年4号台风“黑格比”在登陆北上减弱后南侧滞留的降水云团引发浙东北暴雨成因。受对流层中层副高西脊点偏西及台风北侧高层急流出口区右侧辐合下沉影响,台风云系不对称结构明显,主要分布在南侧。中层冷空气从台风西侧入侵触发中小尺度对流系统,小尺度云团在台风环流内逆时针移动至台风东侧并发展滞留,在浙东北引发强降水。期间冷暖气团(中层MPV1正值和低层MPV2负值)交汇区及中低层锋生大值均可指示暴雨落区,垂直螺旋度也可体现冷空气入侵后台风后倾的垂直结构演变特征;台风东侧持续的西南急流水汽输送有利于夜间浙东北对流降水的维持发展,且水汽低层辐散区对强降水落区有6 h左右的预报提前量。基于SAL定量降水检验证实:大尺度模式由于模拟对流降水演变的欠缺,无法预报出夜间滞后型暴雨增幅;中小尺度模式虽然对暴雨强度刻画相对准确,但大值雨区偏移;ECMWF 3日20:00起报场预报过程累积雨量误差小,较4日08:00起报预报结果更接近实况,但短时暴雨出现时间偏早3~6 h,不利于此类滞后型区域暴雨的预报参考。Based on conventional observation data,intensive observation data,the optimal path of tropical cyclone from China Meteorological Administration,reanalysis fields from ERA5 and radar\satellite data,the causes of rainstorm in Northeastern Zhejiang province triggered by the lingering raining cloud cluster in the south after typhoon Hagupit landed and weakened northward were analyzed by using weather diagnosis method.Affected by westward of west ridge point of the middle troposphere subtropical high and convergence sinking of right side of the upper jet stream exit area on the north of typhoon,the typhoon cloud system has obvious asymmetric structure,mainly distributed in the south side.The mesoscale convective systems were triggered by the middle troposphere cold air invaded from the west of typhoon and the small-scale cloud cluster moved counterclockwise to the east of typhoon and developed retention,causing heavy precipitation in Northeastern Zhejiang Province.During the rainstorm period,the intersection area of warm and cold air(the positive MPV1 in the middle troposphere and the negative MPV2 in the lower troposphere)and the frontogenesis great value area in the middle-lower troposphere can indicate the rainstorm area.The vertical helicity can also reflect the vertical structure evolution characteristics of typhoon backward-tilt after the cold air invasion.The continuous water vapor transport of the southwest jet on the east of typhoon was beneficial to the maintenance and development of convective precipitation in Northeastern Zhejiang Province at night and the water vapor divergence area can forecast the heavy precipitation area by leading about 6h.Based on the SAL quantitative precipitation verification,the large scale models cannot predict retarded rainstorm amplification at night due to the deficiency of simulated convective precipitation evolution;the meso-micro scale models described rainstorm intensity accurately,relatively,but the great value area deviated;the cumulative precipitation forecast by ECMWF(

关 键 词：台风 滞后型暴雨 湿位涡 锋生 SAL定量降水检验 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]