重大传染病疫情下基于服务水平的疫苗分配及储备研究  

A study of service-level-based vaccine allocation and reserve under major infectious disease epidemics

作　　者：冯春[1] 蒋雪 周鑫昕 罗茂 FENG Chun;JIANG Xue;ZHOU Xinxin;LUO Mao(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiao tong University,Chengdu 610031)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2024年第2期232-242,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划项目(2014GXS4D146);成都市哲学社会科学规划专项课题项目(2020ZXB08)。

摘　　要：为缓解重大传染病疫情下疫苗的短缺现状,本文结合传染病模型(susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased,SIRD)考虑疫苗需求与疫区医院收治容量的关系,以期望短缺数最小为目标建立疫苗分配模型,推导分析了最佳服务水平和储备量,并给出了不同情形下疫苗的最优分配方案。此外,通过数值模拟,进一步探究了紧急调配成本、资金预算、需求变化、疫区数量以及疫区间相关性等外生变量带来的影响,验证了模型推导结果,为疫苗分配和储备策略提供了科学依据。研究发现:疫苗接种有助于促进病毒感染曲线平坦化和降低疫情峰值,从而减轻医疗系统超负荷运转的现象,降低因感染而死亡的人数;在不考虑储备疫苗的情况下,无论需求的不确定性程度如何,为每个地区提供同等的服务水平有利于最小化疫苗期望短缺量;考虑储备疫苗的情况下,向需求波动幅度较大的疫区提供更高的服务水平可以减少期望短缺,但疫区数量较多时,为每个疫区提供同等服务水平更具公平性,即使会导致疫苗的次优覆盖;是否考虑储备疫苗取决于紧急调配成本、预算的高低以及疫区需求情况等。After the outbreak of large-scale infectious diseases,vaccines are often the most effective means to eradicate the pandemic.Many infectious diseases,such as smallpox,poliovirus,hepatitis B virus,measles,epidemic parotitis etc.,are suppressed by extensive vaccination.In the protracted coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,various effective and safe vaccines have miraculously broken through.All countries in the world are doing their utmost to vaccinate against COVID-19 on the largest scale and in the shortest possible time.Vaccination is a powerful preventive measure to avoid large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases.Nevertheless,the social planners worldwide share common challenges in meeting the vaccine requirments of overall population,especially in the case of sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases where vaccines are often lack of supplies.For instance,during the 2004-2005 influenza season in the United States,unexpected supply disruptions led to a serious shortage of vaccines.Hence,in the event of a major epidemic,there is a need for a scientific and rational allocation of vaccines according to the evolution characteristics of infectious diseases and the severity of epidemic situations in distinct regions.Inadequate funding and limited information on vaccine needs in multiple regions pose a great challenge for many aid organizations.This present study examines how a decision maker can minimize the expected shortage in delivering relief aid to regions of need,through vaccine allocation and temporary reserve,in the presence of demand uncertainty with a budget constraint.The study obtains four contributions for existing literatures related to this topic.This study briefly analyzes the allocation structure of vaccine emergency funds,proposing that a portion of funds be set aside for stockpiling vaccines for emergency allocation scenarios.Aiming at the problem of vaccine allocation and reserve to control the spread of infectious diseases,first this study designs model hypothesis and sets some variables and

关 键 词：重大传染病 需求不确定 疫苗分配 服务水平 SIRD模型 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]