中国共同富裕的测度、区域差异及动态演化  

Regional differences and dynamic evolution of common prosperity in China

作　　者：邹伟勇 许玲丽[2] Zou Weiyong;Xu Lingli(School of Economics,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,Guangdong,China;School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学经济学院,广东湛江524088 [2]上海大学经济学院,上海200444

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第1期71-81,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72373094);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(72303149);广东海洋大学科研启动经费资助项目(060302082319)资助。

摘　　要：为扎实推动共同富裕取得实质性进展,全面反映共同富裕建设成效,本文探索共同富裕的量化体系。基于熵值法、Dagum基尼系数以及Markov链等实证分析方法,本研究从共同、共享和富裕3个维度测度中国共同富裕指数,并探索其时空演化规律。研究发现:①从区域层面看,共同富裕水平由高到低排序依次为东部、东北部、中部、西部。其中,北京、天津、上海和江苏位于高共同程度–高富裕程度区域。虽然共同程度指数下降,但共享程度指数和富裕程度指数的正向驱动效应更大,共同富裕指数呈现稳步上升趋势。②共同富裕的总体差异主要来源地区间差距,地区内差异贡献相对较小。区域内和区域间的共同富裕发展差距逐渐缩小。③共同富裕发展较为稳定,不同地区的共同富裕发展存在稳定性差异,一般不会出现跨越层级的跃升。临近类型转移的概率大于非临近类型转移的概率,上升转移类型的概率大于下降转移类型的概率。In order to firmly promote the substantial progress of common prosperity and comprehensively reflect the achievements of common prosperity construction,this paper explores the quantitative system of common prosperity.Based on the entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,Markov chain and other empirical analysis methods,this paper measures China’s common prosperity index from the three dimensions of common,shared and rich,and explores its space-time evolution features.The results show that:1)Both China’s common prosperity index and the four regional common prosperity indices show a fluctuating upward trend.At the regional level,the order of common prosperity from high to low is east,northeast,central and west.Among them,Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Jiangsu are located in areas with high commonality and high prosperity.Although the common index has declined,the positive impact of sharing index and prosperity index is greater,and the common prosperity index shows a steady upward trend.2)Regional differences have become the main source of overall differences in national common prosperity,followed by intra-regional differences and finally differences in overlapping regions between regions.The contribution of regional differences to the development of common prosperity is relatively small,and it is not the main reason for the differences in regional common prosperity.The development gap of common prosperity within and among regions has been gradually narrowing.3)The development of China’s common prosperity index is relatively stable and has a high degree of sustainability over time.The probability of an adjacent type of transfer is higher than that of a non-adjacent type of transfer.The probability of an ascending type of transfer is generally higher than that of a descending type of transfer.The transfer probability results of the four regional common prosperity indices are similar to those of China’s common prosperity index.This study provides important guidance on how to make substantial progress in promoting s

关 键 词：共同富裕 动态演化 熵权法 Dagum基尼系数 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] D616[政治法律—政治学]