“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线区域入境旅游发展的政策效应评价  

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of inbound tourism in China

作　　者：秦晓楠 王悦 韩苗苗 Qin Xiaonan;Wang Yue;Han Miaomiao(Management College,Ocean University of China,Jinan 266100,Shandong,China;Commercial College,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]山东师范大学商学院,山东济南250000

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第1期82-90,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901169);国家社会科学重点项目(23ATY005);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019BG001)资助。

摘　　要：以2007—2019年中国31个省(区、市)面板数据,结合超效率及全局Malmquist指数与PSM-DID法实证检验“一带一路”倡议对入境旅游发展的政策效应。研究表明:①入境旅游的平均发展能力呈现为正增长,但产业空间格局差异仍未缓解,“一路”区域空间集聚明显,“一带”区域趋向空间极化发展;②倡议显著提高了沿线区域的入境旅游效率,但其实施效果具有滞后性,“一路”区域的政策响应优于“一带”;③倡议的政策效应具有区域异质性,经济发展水平与旅游交通条件对倡议的影响存在差异,结构红利与政策驱动效应显著,但旅游产业内核基础条件亟需提升,交通设施和资源要素优化应成为未来的提升关键。The implementation of the Belt and Road initiative has brought a new development pattern for China’s inbound tourism.How to identify the policy effects brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative,and analyze the different mechanisms of its role towards a differentiated policy support environment is a key issue to effectively enhance the policy implementation effect in order to guide different regional tourism industries to grasp the development strategy.This paper empirically examines the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of inbound tourism using a panel of 31 Chinese provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2007 to 2019,combining super-efficiency and global Malmquist indices with the PSMDID(Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference)method.The research results are as follows:1)The Belt and Road initiative has led to a positive trend in the average development capacity of inbound tourism,and the development level of the tourism industry has been effectively improved,but the analysis of the dynamic evolution of efficiency shows that the differences in the spatial pattern of China’s inbound tourism industry have not yet been effectively alleviated,which is manifested in the obvious spatial agglomeration of the“one road”region and the tendency of the“one belt”region to develop towards spatial polarization;2)A quasi-natural experiment based on PSM-DID,using benchmark regression analysis and robustness tests,verified that the Belt and Road Initiative did significantly improve the efficiency of inbound tourism in the regions along the route,but the results of the dynamic effects test indicated that the implementation effect of the initiative lagged in both the Belt and Road regions,and that the policy response and the intensity of the policy effect were better in the Road region than in the Belt region;3)The policy effects of the Belt and Road initiative are regionally heterogeneous.A study of the differences in the mechanism of action of the external su

关 键 词：政策效应 入境旅游效率 "一带一路"倡议 双重差分 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]