多情景模拟下的跨境铁路运输时效研究——以中老铁路为例  

Temporal efficiency of cross-border railways with multiple simulation scenarios:A case study of the China-Laos Railway

作　　者：黄洁[1,2] 熊美成 王姣娥 高阳[1,2] 李永玲 Huang Jie;Xiong Meicheng;Wang Jiaoe;Gao Yang;Li Yongling(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research/Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第1期91-98,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371177,42201186);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2021049)资助。

摘　　要：跨境铁路运输是中国与周边国家陆路联通的重要环节。跨境铁路运输时效既受线路畅通情况、基础设施技术等级等“硬联通”因素的制约,也受到海关条例、口岸畅通水平等“软联通”因素的影响。因此,跨境铁路运输时效研究应充分考虑不同情景,以期更科学地模拟运输时长的变化机理。本文以中老铁路(中国昆明−老挝万象,简称中老铁路)为例,在梳理中老铁路沿线地区社会经济概况及基础设施发展水平的基础上,考虑不同运营速度、通关时间、铁轨换装、多式联运等因素,构建了长途跨境运输时间的计算模型,采用多情景模拟方法,解析了中老铁路运的优势距离及客货运时效变化。研究表明:①中老铁路有助于沿线跨境运输时间显著减少。相比公路运输,客货运时间优势均超过20%;②通关时间是影响跨境铁路运输的关键要素之一,占运输总时长的20%~60%;③铁海联运是中老铁路运输进一步提升运输效率的途径,能有效缩短老挝至日本的总运输时间。Cross-border railway transportation is an important link between China and its neighboring countries.The organization of cross-border railway transportation is not only restricted by the“hard connectivity”factors such as the railway track connection and the technical level of infrastructure but also affected by the“soft connectivity”factors such as customs regulations.Therefore,the study on its organization should fully consider various scenarios to better simulate the process of cross-border railway transportation and improve the accuracy of transportation duration estimation.Taking the China-Laos Railway(Kunming,China to Vientiane,Laos)as an example,this paper analyzes the socio-economic background and infrastructure development level along the China-Laos Railway and builds a calculation model of long-distance cross-border transportation time including parameters of railway operating speed,customs clearance time,rail transshipment,and multimodal transport temporal cost.The model splits the China-Laos Railway into sections according to different technical levels and borders,and transportation modes.To study the between-mode difference,the paper compares the transportation distance and time between railway and road modes.Moreover,the simulation extends the study in the Trans-Asian Railway Network.To investigate the passenger travel efficiency,we design 15 stops along the railway to simulate the China-Laos passenger train schedule so that we can study how the train improves the connectivity between cities in Laos and Southwest China.In the study of freight efficiency,we compare the general cargo mode and the international freight train mode.In addition,we design rail-sea intermodal transportation scenarios for Laos to compare the long-distance transportation duration at different ports in Thailand and China.In brief,this paper analyzes the distance advantage and passenger and freight transport efficiency of the China-Laos Railway.The study shows that:1)the China-Laos Railway helps to significantly reduce t

关 键 词：跨境运输 客货运组织 中老铁路 情景模拟 运输时效 

分 类 号：A000.0[哲学宗教—马克思主义哲学]