非洲水电国际合作重点市场分析研究  

Research on Key Markets of International Cooperation on Hydropower in Africa

作　　者：乔苏杰 Qiao Sujie(China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120)

机构地区：[1]水电水利规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《中外能源》2024年第2期1-6,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：随着“一带一路”倡议高质量推进,中国与非洲国家水电合作潜力不断释放。但非洲各国水电资源分布不均、营商环境各异,中国企业在非洲开展水电开发合作面临东道国政治、经济、社会和技术等风险挑战。如何科学识别并瞄准重点目标市场,是中国企业在非洲成功开展水电国际合作的关键。通过对非洲54个主权国家进行初步筛选,剔除国别风险最高、水电技术可开发量低于6000GW·h/a、水电装机低于300MW的国家,得到17个初步筛选国家;应用模糊综合评价法建立定量的国别评价指标体系模型,根据国别风险、主权信用风险、营商环境、市场空间、水电开发潜力5项指标对初步筛选国家进行综合定量评价,结合专家经验定性分析,最终筛选出适宜中国企业开展水电开发合作的5个重点国家——尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、刚果(金)、加纳和赞比亚。针对重点合作国家的政局、经济增速、营商环境、水电资源禀赋、电力市场规模以及矿电联营商业模式,分别提出有针对性的合作建议。With the high-quality promotion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative,the potential of hydropower cooperation between China and African countries has been continuously unleashed.However,Chinese enterpris-es’hydropower development cooperation in Africa faces political,economic,social and technical risks and chal-lenges in host countries due to the uneven distribution of hydropower resources and different business environ-ments in African countries.How to scientifically identify and target key target markets is the key for Chinese enterprises to successfully carry out international hydropower development cooperation in Africa.Through the preliminary screening of 54 sovereign countries in Africa,17 countries were selected after excluding the countries with the highest country risk,hydropower technology development capacity less than 6000GWh/a and hydropower installed capacity less than 300MW.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was applied to estab-lish a quantitative country evaluation index system model,and comprehensive quantitative evaluation was car-ried out on the countries preliminarily selected according to five indicators including country risk,sovereign credit risk,business environment,market space and hydropower development potential.Finally,five key countries suitable for Chinese enterprises to carry out hydropower development cooperation,including Nigeria,Ethiopia,Congo(DRC),Ghana and Zambia,were screened out combined with the qualitative analysis of experts’experi-ence.Specific cooperation suggestions were put forward for the political situation,economic growth rate,business environment,hydropower resource endowment,power market scale and business model of mining and power joint ventures of the key cooperation countries.

关 键 词：非洲 水电资源 国际合作 国别风险 主权信用风险 市场空间 

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