考虑车辆冲突的跨区域物流配送风险评估算法  

Risk Assessment Algorithm for Cross Regional Logistics Delivery Considering Vehicle Conflict

作　　者：姚秋珍 YAO Qiu-zhen(College of Management,Yangen University,Quanzhou 362605,China)

机构地区：[1]仰恩大学管理学院,泉州362605

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期92-96,共5页Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：福建省教育厅中青年教育科研项目(批准号:JAS21383)资助。

摘　　要：为了提升跨区域物流配送风险评估结果的准确性,提出一种考虑车辆冲突的跨区域物流配送风险评估算法,通过自回归滑动平均(ARMA)理论建立车辆车速预测模型,分析车辆冲突对跨区域物流配送产生的影响;根据跨区域物流配送风险等级和评价标准建立评估矩阵,引入熵权法获取对应的风险向量,归一化处理跨区域物流配送风险,计算跨区域物流配送在各个配送路径对应的风险权值,并加权计算,最终实现跨区域物流配送风险评估。实验结果表明,本文算法可以有效提升跨区域物流配送风险评估结果的准确性,降低评估耗时。In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment results for cross regional logistics distribution,a cross regional logistics distribution risk assessment algorithm considering vehicle conflicts was proposed.A vehicle speed prediction model was established using the theory of autoregressive moving average(ARMA)to analyze the impact of vehicle conflicts on cross regional logistics distribution.Under the consideration of vehicle conflicts,an evaluation matrix was established based on the risk level and evaluation criteria of cross regional logistics distribution.The entropy weight method was introduced to obtain the corresponding risk vector,normalize the risk of cross regional logistics distribution,calculate the risk weight values corresponding to each distribution path of cross regional logistics distribution,and weight the calculation,ultimately achieving cross regional logistics distribution risk assessment.The experimental results show that the algorithm proposed effectively improve the accuracy of cross regional logistics distribution risk assessment results and reduce assessment time.

关 键 词：车辆冲突 跨区域 物流配送 风险评估 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]