中心城市住房市场过热、多尺度空间溢出效应与精准协同调控新模式  

The Overheated Housing Market in Central Cities,Multi-Scale Spatial Spillover Effects and Targeted Coordinated Regulation

作　　者：丁如曦 倪鹏飞[2] 李东坤 DING Ruxi;NI Pengfei;LI Dongkun(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,611130;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,100028;Southwest Jiaotong University,610031)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院,611130 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100028 [3]西南交通大学公共管理学院,610031

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第2期104-121,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中心城市引领城市群带动区域经济协调发展的机制与路径研究”(72274158);中国社会科学院国情调研重大项目“房地产调控政策及其效果”(GQZD2020010)。

摘　　要：本文在城市体系理论框架内拓展构建了一个包含城市层级和经济联动的城市间住房市场过热空间溢出模型,利用2006一2017年全国285个地级及以上城市的面板数据和空间计量方法,探究中心城市住房市场过热及其空间溢出效应。研究发现,(1)受居民收入、人口规模、金融信贷等的相互加强作用和土地供给制约,中国国家和区域层面的中心城市以及重点都市圈和城市群容易出现住房市场过热现象,且过热成分具有正的空间自相关性。(2)中心城市住房市场过热成分因城市间地理距离间隔和经济联动程度的差异,存在以中心城市一都市圈一城市群近距离衰减型扩散溢出为主导和基于中心城市跨区域互联的远程传导传染并存的特征。平均而言,这种空间溢出效应在中心城市近邻约200公里的地域范围内最为突出。(3)中国不同层级中心城市住房市场过热成分的空间溢出强度和风险传染程度存在明显差异。其中,高层级中心城市向域外溢出影响的地域更广,但向更大空间范围溢出和风险传染的城市层级联动载体与经济地理条件尚不具备。上述结论对依托中心城市及其引领的都市圈和城市群,将因城精准施策与府际协作联动有机结合开启住房市场精准协同调控新模式,进而更加科学有效地防范化解中国住房市场经济金融风险具有重要政策含义。In examining the significant evolution of China's urban system and the adjustments in spatial structures of real estate development,we found it evident that the inter-city variations and connections within the housing market have grown increasingly systematic and complex,which raised higher demands on the precision and coordination of regulatory practices in the housing market.This study develops and extends an inter-city housing market overheating spatial spillover model within an urban system's theory framework,incorporating city tiers and economic linkages.Utilizing panel data and spatial econometric methods from 285 cities at the prefecture level and above from 2006 to 2017,we investigated the overheating of urban housing markets in central cities and its spatial spillover effects.The findings are threefold.First,central cities,key metropolitan areas,and urban agglomerations in China are particularly susceptible to housing market overheating.This overheating tendency is characterized by positive spatial auto-correlation,indicating a propensity for such conditions to cluster spatially.Second,the overheated housing market in central cities manifests multi-scale spatial spillover effects.These are influenced by variations in geographical distance and economic linkages between cities,resulting in a diffusion pattern primarily centered around and attenuating from central cities,metropolitan areas,and urban agglomerations.This pattern is marked by both close-distance attenuation and long-distance transmission,with an average significant spillover effect within approximately 200 kilometers of the central city.Third,there are distinct differences in the intensity and risk contagion of spatial spillover from overheated housing markets across different tiers of central cities.High-level central cities have a more extensive spillover influence beyond their regions.However,the mechanisms for broader spatial spillover and risk contagion,including city-level linkage carriers and economic geographical conditions,are underde

关 键 词：住房市场过热 中心城市 空间溢出效应 精准协同调控 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]