新型布尼亚患者预后风险预警模型的构建  

Construction of a prognostic risk warning model for patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome

作　　者：卢星星 赵晓玲[2] 张巧梅 LU Xing-xing;ZHAO Xiao-ling;ZHANG Qiao-mei(Jiangsu University School of Medical,Zhenjiang 212013,China;Department of Infectious Diseases,the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学医学院,镇江212013 [2]南京医科大学第一附属医院感染病科,南京210029

出　　处：《中国人兽共患病学报》2024年第2期179-184,共6页Chinese Journal of Zoonoses

摘　　要：目的分析新型布尼亚(SFTS)患者预后不良的危险因素,并构建预警模型。方法回顾性分析南京市某三级甲等医院2020年7月至2023年6月确诊的新型布尼亚患者241例,按其预后情况分为预后不良组(34例)和预后良好组(207例)。分析得出影响患者预后情况的独立危险因素,建立风险预警模型。结果年龄[OR=1.088,95%CI(1.026~1.154),P=0.005]、意识状态[OR=5.647,95%CI(1.958~16.288),P=0.001]、新型布尼亚病毒载量[OR=3.65,95%CI(2.153~6.189),P<0.001]是影响患者预后的独立危险因素。基于3个危险因素构建相关列线图模型,且该列线图模型的预测效能良好(ROC=0.911,95%CI(0.853,0.970),P<0.001)。结论本研究构建的SFTS患者预后风险预警模型预测效果良好,可作为临床预测SFTS患者预后的工具使用。This study analyzed the risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS),to establish an early warning model.A retrospective analysis was performed to collect 241 cases of patients with SFTS diagnosed in a tertiary hospital in Nanjing between July 2020 and June 2023.The patients were divided into a poor prognosis group(34 cases)and a good prognosis group(207 cases).The independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients were analyzed,and an early warning risk model was established.Age[OR=1.088,95%CI(1.026-1.154),P=0.005],state of consciousness[OR=5.647,95%CI(1.958-16.288),P=0.001]and SFTS viral load[OR=3.65,95%CI(2.153-6.189,P<0.001]were independent risk factors for poor prognosis.A correlation nomogram model was constructed on the basis of these three risk factors,and was found to have good predictive efficiency[ROC=0.911,95%CI(0.853,0.970),P<0.001].The prognostic early warning risk model for SFTS established in this study had good predictive effects and can be used as a clinical tool for patient prognostic prediction.

关 键 词：新型布尼亚 预后 风险预警模型 列线图 

分 类 号：R373.3[医药卫生—病原生物学] R18[医药卫生—基础医学]