基于经济增长视角的山东省新旧动能转换效果评估  

Performance Evaluation of Shandong’s New and Old Kinetic Energy Transformation from Economic Growth Perspective

作　　者：许月恒[1] 刘德军[1] 冀刚 XU Yueheng;LIU Dejun;JI Gang(Shandong Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省宏观经济研究院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2024年第2期43-58,共16页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：山东省人文社会科学基金项目“山东强省会经济高质量增长模式和路径研究”(2021-YYJJ-14)。

摘　　要：坚定不移推动新旧动能转换,是当前山东省推动经济高质量发展的重要任务。基于2008-2021年我国30个省级行政区的面板数据,将除山东省以外的其他省(区、市)作为潜在控制组,从经济增长的视角,采用合成控制法,对山东省新旧动能转换重大工程的实施效果进行评估。结果表明,从整体上来说,新旧动能转换重大工程的实施对山东省经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但这种作用的显现具有时间滞后性,并且不同因素对山东省新旧动能转换重大工程的影响具有差异性。因此,要深刻认识和把握新旧动能转换的演进过程,大力推动供需两侧新动能培育和成长等。Promoting the transformation of new and old driving forces is an important strategic task for Shandong's economic development at the current stage.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021,taking the provinces(regions and cities)outside Shandong as the potential controller,and using the synthetic control method,this paper verifies the implementation performance of Shandong Province's new and old kinetic energy transformation project from economic growth perspective.The result shows that on the whole,the implementation of the new and old kinetic energy transformation project has a promoting effect on Shandong's economic growth,but the manifestation of this effect has time lag.Furthermore,different factors have different impacts on Shandong's new and old kinetic energy transformation project.Based on the above results,this paper proposes that it is necessary to deeply understand and grasp the evolution process of the transformation of new and old driving forces,and vigorously promote the cultivation and growth of new driving forces on both supply and demand sides.

关 键 词：新旧动能转换 高质量发展 经济增长 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]