应对突发公共卫生事件的对策分析——以天津市为例  

Analysis of countermeasures in response to public health emergencies:taking Tianjin as an example

作　　者：金鑫[1,2] 马钰淇 张寒松 杨洪利 JIN Xin;MA Yuqi;ZHANG Hansong;YANG Hongli(Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072 [2]天津市卫生健康委员会 [3]天津市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2024年第1期42-45,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

摘　　要：根据新冠疫情的病毒学特点,基于大数据与模型实时分析2022年12月天津市发生新冠疫情的全程数据。天津市当日新冠病毒感染存量人数在2022年12月17—23日到达峰值,2023年1月初结束此次疫情。天津市医护人员资源充足,普通病床基本满足需求,ICU病床数量相对紧张,无法容纳高峰期的所有重症患者。面对此次新冠疫情,天津市积极调整、优化防控政策,提升医疗救治能力,统筹配置医疗资源,保障重点人群的医疗资源供应。面对有可能到来的下一次疫情冲击或可能的应急状态,仍需长期坚持完善医疗结构,迅速调整现有公共卫生应急管理体系,及时提升医疗服务能力,将由于准备不足而造成的人员或经济损失降到最低。Based on the virological characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic globally,the whole data of the first COVID-19 epidemic onslaught in Tianjin city in December 2022 were analyzed in real time based on big data and models.The number of new crown-infected stock on the same day in Tianjin reaches its peak from December 17 to 23,and this outbreak ended in early January 2023.Tianjin has sufficient healthcare staff resources,with general beds basically meeting the demand,and a relatively tight number of ICU beds that cannot accommodate all the critically ill patients during the peak period.In the face of strong COVID-19 epidemic,Tianjin has actively adjusted and optimized its prevention and control policies,upgraded its medical treatment capacity,and coordinated the allocation of medical resources to ensure the supply of medical resources for key populations.In the face of a possible next wave of epidemic impact or a possible state of emergency,it is still necessary to persist in improving the medical structure in the long term,rapidly adjusting the existing public health emergency management system,and upgrading the capacity of medical services in a timely manner,so as to minimize personnel or economic losses due to insufficient preparation.

关 键 词：大数据分析 SEIR模型 疫情对策 应急管理 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]