西南山区乡村贫困地域系统时空演化格局研究——以云南省镇沅县为例  

Research on the Spatial-Temporal Evolution Pattern of Rural Impoverished Areal Systems in Mountainous Regions of Southwest China——Taking Zhenyuan County, Yunnan Province as an Example

作　　者：潘卓[1,2] 廖和平[1,2] 刘愿理 朱琳 PAN Zhuo;LIAO Heping;LIU Yuanli;ZHU Lin(School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Center for Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Regional Development Assessment,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;School of Public Management,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of State Governance,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]西南大学精准扶贫与区域发展评估研究中心,重庆400715 [3]重庆工商大学公共管理学院,重庆400067 [4]西南大学国家治理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期2-14,共13页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BSH079);重庆市技术预见与制度创新项目(CSTB2023TFII-OIX0081)。

摘　　要：在梳理总结国内外关于贫困地理与农村多维空间贫困、乡村地域系统与贫困地域系统理论前沿研究的基础上,提出“乡村贫困地域系统”研究视角,并对乡村贫困地域系统理论内涵进行了初步探析.以云南省镇沅县109个村域为评价分析单元,构建了乡村贫困地域系统演化发展评价指标体系,设计了乡村贫困地域系统演化发展指数测度模型和基于“时空立方体—新兴时空热点分析”的时空演化模式识别方法.研究显示:(1)镇沅县2013-2021年乡村贫困地域系统演化时序阶段性特征经历了“差异波动演化(2013-2015年)—快速演化(2016-2019年)—增长滞缓趋稳(2020-2021年)”3个主要阶段.(2)镇沅县乡村贫困地域系统时空演化模式以连续热点模式为主,加强的热点模式呈零星分布,表征2013-2021年镇沅县乡村贫困地域系统整体上经历了较快且连续稳定的减贫演化过程,是减贫政策普惠作用在时空演化模式上的具体表现;连续冷点模式和持续冷点模式呈现出县域东西两端集聚分布态势.(3)多维空间贫困陷阱主要集中在和平镇、者东镇、振太镇的部分村域,相关村域脱贫稳定性相对较差、返贫风险较高.乡村发展是乡村地域系统循环累积与动态演化的结果,深入刻画分析乡村贫困地域系统时空演化格局与特征,对于科学推动脱贫地区转型发展具有重要意义.Based on the summary and review of domestic and international research on poverty geography,multidimensional spatial poverty,rural regional systems,and impoverished areal systems,this article proposes a research perspective on“Rural Impoverished Areal Systems”and provides a preliminary analysis of the theoretical connotation of rural impoverished areal systems.Using 109 village domains in Zhenyuan County,Yunnan Province as evaluation and analysis units,an evaluation index system for the evolution and development of rural impoverished areal systems was constructed.A measurement model for the evolution and development index of rural impoverished areal systems was designed,along with a spatial-temporal evolution pattern recognition method based on“spatio-temporal cubes and emerging spatio-temporal hotspot analysis”.The research reveals the following:①The temporal characteristics of the evolution stages of rural impoverished areal systems in Zhenyuan County from 2013 to 2021 can be summarized as“differentiated fluctuation evolution(2013-2015)-rapid evolution(2016-2019)-growth slowdown and stabilization(2020-2021)”.②The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of rural impoverished areal systems in Zhenyuan County was mainly characterized by continuous hotspot patterns,with strengthened hotspots scattered sporadically.This indicates that from 2013 to 2021,the overall rural impoverished areal system in Zhenyuan County experienced a relatively fast and continuously stable poverty reduction process,which was a specific manifestation of the inclusive effect of poverty reduction policies in the spatial-temporal evolution pattern.Continuous cold spot patterns and persistent cold spot patterns showed a concentration in the eastern and western ends of the county.③Multidimensional spatial poverty traps were mainly concentrated in certain village domains of Heping Town,Zhedong Town,and Zhentai Town,where the stability of poverty alleviation and the risk of falling back into poverty were relatively poor.Rural develop

关 键 词：乡村贫困地域系统 时空演化格局 西南山区 镇沅县 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]