我国绿电规模化交易主要影响因素分析及政策建议  

Analysis on Main Factors Influencing Large-scale Trading of Green Electricity in China and the Policy Suggestions

作　　者：姜克隽 贺晨旻 Jiang Kejun;He Chenmin(Institute of Energy Research,China Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100038;Zhejiang Institute of Carbon Neutrality Innovation,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310014)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京100038 [2]浙江工业大学浙江碳中和创新研究院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《中外能源》2024年第3期1-6,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：我国光伏发电和风电处于快速发展阶段,如何鼓励绿色电力消费,成为近期电力行业发展的一个重要方向。自2021年我国绿电交易开始以来进展迅速,在交易量和交易机制方面都有明显进展。2023年前三季度,完成绿电结算电量352×108k W·h、绿证391万张。尽管绿电交易快速上升,但其占市场交易量的比重仍然较低,2023年1~6月绿电交易仅占全国总交易量的1%。未来绿电将占据电力消费的主要部分,成为未来电力系统发展的主要特征。绿电交易近期要解决的主要是一些显性问题,如跨省交易困难导致绿电交易量受限、更低价格的绿电无法扩大应用空间等,而绿电供应途径及高可靠度供电机制将成为未来需要面对的主要问题。近期推进大规模绿电交易是可行的,我国已出台各项政策,要求加大绿电交易,扩展省间交易,推进现货交易。电网调度侧需要尽快强化技术措施,适应波动性强的可再生电力的纳入,确保高可靠度供电。长期来看,需要明确未来新型电力系统的架构,以长期发展目标来确定现在的规划,一个明确的长期发展格局,对当前的电力系统建设至关重要。纳入现货交易是进一步扩大绿电交易的有效手段,需尽快构建24h及低于小时级的供电预测和电价预测信息体系,为现货交易提供技术支持。China's photovoltaic and wind power generation are in a stage of rapid development.How to encour-age green electricity consumption has become an important direction for the development of the power indus-try in the near future.China's green electricity trading has made rapid progress since its beginning in 2021,achieving significant progress in both trading volume and trading mechanism.In the first three quarters of 2023,the settled green electricity consumption was 35.2 billion kW·h,and 3.91 million green certificates were issued.Although the green electricity trading is rising fast,its proportion in market trading volume is still low,and the green electricity trading from January to June 2023 only accounts for 1%of the country's total trading volume.In the future,green electricity will occupy a major part of electricity consumption and become the main feature of power system development.The problems to be solved in the near future for green elec-tricity trading mainly include the limited green electricity trading volume caused by the difficulties in interprovincial trading and the failure to expand the application space of lower-priced green electricity,while the supply path and high reliability power supply mechanism of green electricity will become the main problems to be faced in the future.It is feasible to promote large-scale green electricity trading in the near future,and China has introduced various policies to increase green electricity trading,expand inter-provincial trading and promote spot trading.The dispatching side of power grid needs to strengthen the technical measures as soon as possible to adapt to the inclusion of renewable power with strong volatility and to ensure high reliability power supply.In the long run,it is necessary to clarify the structure of future new power system and to de-termine the current planning with long-term development goals.A clear long-term development pattern is cru-cial to the current power system construction.The inclusion of spot trading is an effective means t

关 键 词：绿电 规模化交易 现货交易 高可靠度供电 电网调度 供电和电价预测 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]