孕育希望:宏观代际流动性对生育意愿的影响  

Raising Hope:The Impact of Intergenerational Mobility on Fertility Desire in China

作　　者：蔡韦成 谢宇 CAI Weicheng;XIE Yu(Center for Social Research,Guanghua School of Management,Peking University;Department of Sociology,Princeton University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心 [2]美国普林斯顿大学社会学系

出　　处：《社会》2024年第1期178-212,共35页Chinese Journal of Sociology

摘　　要：当今中国,子女在家庭中仍处于中心位置,父母对子女福祉的重视会影响其生育决策。本文使用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010—2018年数据,考察了宏观社会流动性对生育意愿的影响。研究结果表明,相对流动性与期望子女数显著正相关,主观态度是重要的中介影响机制。从子代地位预期与抚育成本预期的视角出发,相对流动性的影响呈负社会经济梯度,但流动性的提升不会抑制高社会阶层的生育意愿;性别差异在社会化视角中被强调,男性受流动性的影响更强,并且流动性与期望男孩数关联更加密切。本研究从宏观层面丰富了对低生育率现象的理解,对从微观层面分析流动效应的研究也有借鉴意义。本文认为,机会公平政策应当作为当下中国生育促进政策的一个重要构成。Children play such a crucial role in Chinese families that their future socioeconomic prospects significantly influence parents ' reproductive decision.Drawing on the data from the 2010-2018 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS),this study investigates the impact of macro-level intergenerational mobility on fertility intentions.The findings reveal a positive association between relative mobility and desired family size.Mediation analysis highlights the importance of subjective attitudes,including expected social status,subjective well-being,and societal evaluations.Additionally,analyses along socio-economic gradients demonstrate a diminishing effect of relative mobility with increasing socio-economic status,though it remains non-negative among high socio-economic groups.Furthermore,there are gender differences,with a more pronounced pattern observed among men than women,particularly regarding the preference for male offspring.Finally,the method of instrumental variable mitigates attenuation biases from measurement errors.This study advances our understanding of macro-level determinants of fertility intentions and underscores the significance of mobility opportunities for fertility policy considerations.

关 键 词：生育意愿 代际流动 相对流动 子女中心主义 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] C913.1