国际危机中声望动机的识别  

Identification of Prestige Motivation in International Crises

作　　者：丁鲁 Ding Lu(School of Politics and Public Administration,Southwest University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学政治与公共管理学院,重庆401120

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第2期89-117,156,共30页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：在国际危机中,决策者需要识别对手的动机,以制定行之有效的应对之策。其中一项富有挑战性的动机识别工作是判断对手追求声望的动机。具体而言,决策者有时判断声望动机在对手的决策中发挥主导作用,有时则判断声望动机仅发挥次要作用。作者因此探讨决策者依据什么条件判断声望动机为对手主导(或次要)动机。根据声望动机识别理论,当满足以下任一条件时,决策者会判断声望动机在对手的决策中发挥主导作用:其一,决策者判断对手的非理性程度高,且危机所涉及对手的物质利益重要性高;其二,决策者判断对手的非理性程度低,且危机所涉及对手的物质利益重要性低。在其他情况下,决策者会判断声望动机仅在对手的决策中发挥次要作用。对阿比西尼亚危机和第三次柏林危机两个案例的过程追踪研究验证了这一理论的有效性,有助于理解国际危机中的妥协行为,并对制定合理的声望政策具有一定的启示意义。In international crises,decision-makers formulate effective countermeasures by identifying the motives of the adversary.One of the challenging motivation identification tasks is to determine the adversary's prestige motivation.Specifically,decision-makers sometimes identify prestige motivation as the one playing a dominant role in the adversary's decision-making,while at other times they determine that prestige motivation plays only a minor role.The author thus explores the conditions under which decision-makers judge prestige motivation to be the dominant(or secondary)motive of the adversary.According to the Prestige Motivation Identification Theory,decision-makers judge prestige motivation to play a dominant role in the adversary's decision-making when either(1)decision-makers judge the adversary to be highly irrational and the importance of the adversary's material interests involved in the crisis to be high,or(2)the decision-makers judge the adversary to be low in irrationality and the importance of the adversary's material interests involved in the crisis to be low.In other cases,the decision-makers would judge prestige motivation to play only a minor role in the adversary's decision-making.A process-tracing study of two cases,the Abyssinian Crisis and the Berlin Wall Crisis,verifies the validity of this theory,contributes to the understanding of compromising behavior in international crises,and sheds light on the formulation of sound prestige policies.

关 键 词：国际危机 声望动机 动机识别 阿比西尼亚危机 第三次柏林危机 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]