“一带一路”沿线基础设施投资风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Railway Infrastructure Investment Along the"Belt and Road"

作　　者：李林卿 吕敏[2] 刘艳华 李勃兴 宫丹青 郭胜杰 LI Linqing;LYU Min;LIU Yanhua;LI Boxing;GONG Danqing;GUO Shengjie(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;Market Monitoring and Evaluation Center,National Railway Administration of China,Beijing 100036,China;China Railway Erju Group Xinyun Engineering Co.,Ltd,Chengdu 610000,China;Freight Department of China Railway Beijing Bureau Group Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100860,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [3]国家铁路局市场监测评价中心,北京100036 [4]中铁二局集团新运工程有限公司,四川成都610000 [5]中国铁路北京局集团有限公司货运部,北京100860

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第2期3-10,共8页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家铁路局科技研究计划项目(TYFY201929)。

摘　　要：为全面评估“一带一路”对外铁路基础设施投资风险,首先构建数据-地理信息驱动下的考虑政治、经济、社会、需求、自然环境的风险评估指标体系;其次,采用最佳-最差方法 (Best Worst Method, BWM)确定风险评估指标权重,利用WASPAS方法对沿线国家进行风险评估与排序;最后以沿线60个国家进行实证分析,创新性地利用地理信息系统(GIS)获取各国地形地貌风险特征,将风险评估结果划分为五个风险等级分析。研究发现经济风险、政治风险在投资风险中占有很大比重,社会局势不稳定等因素会影响铁路建设进度,自然环境风险偏高会加大铁路基础设施建设的技术难度,从而影响直接投资的成本。To comprehensively assess the risks of foreign railway infrastructure investment along the Belt and Road,Firstly,a data-geographic information-driven risk assessment index was established with consideration of politics,economy,society,demand and natural environment of the countries along Eurasia.Then,the Best Worst Method(BWM)was conducted to determine the weight of indicators,and the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment(WASPAS)method to perform the assessment.Finally,the investment risks of railway infrastructure of 60 countries in the area were obtained through the proposed method.Geographic information system was used innovatively to obtain the landform risks and the assessment results were divided into five levels to analyze.The results found that economic risks and political risks account for a large proportion of investment risks.Factors such as unstable social conditions will affect the progress of railway construction.High natural environmental risks will increase the technical difficulty of railway infrastructure construction,thereby affecting the cost of investment.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 铁路基础设施投资 风险评估 最佳-最差方法 WASPAS 

分 类 号：U9[交通运输工程]