基于VAR模型的武汉轨道交通建设对城市经济发展带动效应研究  

Driving Benefits of Wuhan Rail Transit Construction Based on Var Model for Urban Development

作　　者：刘琪 LIU Qi(Wuhan Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute Co.,LTD.,Wuhan 430015,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉综合交通研究院有限公司,湖北武汉430015

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第2期18-23,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：近年来,武汉轨道交通加快建设,运营线网日益完善,对城市发展、产业集聚起到了引领带动作用。本文在分析武汉轨道交通发展现状基础上,通过VAR模型对武汉市轨道交通建设投资与经济增长之间的关系进行分析研究,并提出下步发展建议。研究结果表明,武汉市GDP与轨道交通建设投资之间存在长期均衡关系,投资建设对武汉市GDP有稳定拉动效应,应加快轨道交通建设,推动武汉都市圈轨道交通“四网融合”,带动区域一体化发展。In recent years,the construction of Wuhan rail transit has been accelerated and the operation line network has been increasingly improved,which has played a leading role in urban development and industrial agglomeration.Based on the analysis of the development status of Wuhan rail transit,this paper analyzes the relationship between Wuhan rail transit construction investment and economic growth through VAR model,and puts forward suggestions for further development.The research results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Wuhan's GDP and investment in rail transit construction.Investment construction has a stable pulling effect on Wuhan's GDP.We should speed up rail transit construction,promote the"four networks integration"of rail transit in Wuhan Metropolitan Circle,and drive regional integrated development.

关 键 词：VAR模型 轨道交通 GRANGER检验 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]